2014 men's tournament preview

Mar 06, 2014
Aaron Walton-Moss seems healthy and ready to lead Cabrini on a deep run.
Photo by Larry Radloff, d3photography.com

By Pat Coleman
Executive Editor, D3sports.com

Welcome to the annual NCAA Tournament preview, where we attempt to pick a Cinderella team, an early-round disappointment, and a few other interesting games on the road to Salem.

We haven’t had to complain this much about a bracket since 2009. But rather than go on and on here, let’s sprinkle the bracket issues throughout the preview instead.

Off we go.

The top left bracket

LaGrange (18-10) at Centre (23-4), winner to Emory (17-8)
Marian (22-6) at UW-Stevens Point; Central (20-7) vs. St. Olaf (22-5)
Chapman (18-9) at Texas-Dallas; Trinity, Texas (19-9) vs. Whitworth (22-5)
Northwestern (16-11) at UW-Whitewater (23-5); Augustana (19-7) vs. St. Thomas (22-5)

What everyone’s all up in arms about: Among other things, the fact that Emory got the bye here instead of UW-Stevens Point. It still seems reasonable and equitable to send Marian to Illinois Wesleyan, send Webster to a four-team pod at Centre and give UW-Stevens Point the bye it deserves. That and the fact that UW-Whitewater and UW-Stevens Point could have been separated further, but were not.

What do we make of this game? St. Olaf and Central, where Central is making just its second NCAA Tournament appearance in 15 years and St. Olaf is making its first ever trip. It’s a good chance for two tournament neophytes to meet on a neutral floor and for one team to really enjoy the stay ... before being crushed by UW-Stevens Point the next night.

Most likely to disappoint: Emory. I get the massive strength of schedule making up for the eight losses but even if we think that Emory is a 4 seed in this bracket, that’s really high. Don’t think they will be able to live up to that.

Surprise: Centre. The Colonels are ranked higher in our poll, so they might not be such a big surprise, but they would have been favored on a neutral floor and perhaps should be at Emory as well. Among the reasons why our voters prefer Centre: results vs. common opponents Oglethorpe and Birmingham-Southern.

Going to Salem: UW-Stevens Point. I mean, as long as Tyler Tillema and Trevor Hass remain healthy, there isn’t anyone in this bracket that can beat them, and the one team that did beat them promptly got waxed the next time out.

The bottom left bracket

St. Vincent (22-6) at Wooster (25-3); Geneseo State (21-6) vs. Dickinson (21-6)
Penn State-Behrend (23-4) at Hope (20-7); Wheaton, Ill. (19-8) vs. Rose-Hulman (22-5)
Wilmington (19-8) at Washington U. (23-2); Wittenberg (21-7) vs. Calvin (22-5)
Webster (20-7) at Illinois Wesleyan (23-4); St. Norbert (24-1) vs. Ohio Wesleyan (20-7)

Ben Gardner has been all over the place in the scoring column for Hope this year but has been in double figures six times in the past eight games.
Photo by Eric Kelley, d3photography.com

What everyone’s all up in arms about: Hope hosting this bracket, instead of Wheaton, which had better criteria and a head-to-head win. Also, the fact that both Great Lakes pods and both Midwest pods are lined up to face off in the Sweet 16, not the Elite Eight, the only bracket of the four in which this is the case.

What do we make of this game? Geneseo State vs. Dickinson. Just one of those classic NCAA Tournament matchups, right? Probably because Geneseo hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since the mid-90s, when one-fourth of the East Region went to the playoffs.

Most likely to disappoint: Hope, I suppose. Not sure any of the four first-weekend hosts are particularly vulnerable, though, and of Hope’s seven losses, three are to current Top 10 teams.

Surprise: Calvin. Worked out alright here last year and while the NCAA committee also underestimates St. Norbert, Calvin has the more winnable matchup.

Going to Salem: Illinois Wesleyan. If UW-Whitewater were in this bracket, though (and it should be), then I’d take the Warhawks. I feel like I often pick the CCIW team and get let down, although the conference did get to the Final Four last year.

The top right bracket

York, N.Y. (21-7) at Rhode Island College (20-8), winner to Amherst (23-4)
MIT (20-8) at Plattsburgh State (22-5); Husson (26-2) vs. Eastern Connecticut (22-6)
Bridgewater State (16-11) at Cabrini (25-1); Richard Stockton (23-4) vs. Bowdoin (19-5)
Morrisville State (19-8) at Brockport State (24-3); Scranton (24-3) vs. Hobart (21-6)

What everyone’s all up in arms about: The fact that two of six East teams who qualified for the tournament got to host, while one of eight Mid-Atlantic teams host.

What do we make of this game? Richard Stockton vs. Bowdoin. And the question is who will win, the NJAC, which has lost nine consecutive NCAA Tournament games, or the team which lost in the NESCAC quarterfinals and hasn’t played since Feb. 22?

Most likely to disappoint: Brockport State. Without John Ivy, Brockport goes from a Sweet 16 or even an Elite Eight favorite to a team that’s just better than ordinary. Ivy was the SUNYAC player of the year after averaging 22.2 points per game.

Surprise: Scranton. Sorry, Rhode Island College, you can’t be a surprise if you have advanced to the second round six times in the past seven years.

Going to Salem: Cabrini. Going a little away from the favorite here, I suspect, but I like Walton-Moss over Toomey in the battle of the Aarons..

The bottom right bracket

Hartwick (18-9) at SUNY-Purchase (25-2); Albertus Magnus (26-2) vs. WPI (22-4)
Mitchell (19-7) at Williams (23-4); Gordon (17-10) vs. Babson (20-6)
DeSales (18-9) at Randolph-Macon (20-6); Mary Washington (22-5) vs. Springfield (20-7)
Johns Hopkins (17-10) at Virginia Wesleyan (22-6); Alvernia (20-7) vs. Wesley (22-3)

What everyone’s all up in arms about: Albertus Magnus being sent to SUNY-Purchase, considering they just played five and a half weeks ago.

What do we make of this game? Alvernia vs. Wesley. A hard-nosed team that’s on a little bit of a roll vs. a team that lost in its conference semifinals and might have underachieved in February.

Most likely to disappoint: SUNY-Purchase. With the team that beat them last year and the team that beat them last month both in this pod, it seems doable.

Surprise: Mary Washington. Seems like this team might have had a little bit of a chip on its shoulder from its placement in the regional rankings.

Going to Salem: Williams. Best team in this bracket, even though it seems the NCAA seeded them fourth.

Tyler Tillema and Trevor Hass have really carried UW-Stevens Point this season, but the supporting cast, including Austin Ryf, above, won't just stand around and watch.
Photo by Larry Radloff, d3photography.com 

Salem

When Williams and Cabrini square off, or when UW-Stevens Point and Illinois Wesleyan meet, it means we’ll be guaranteed to have an East vs. West final. As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, there should be an opportunity for East to play East or West to play West. The same thing happened in 2009 and afterwards, that committee swore it wouldn’t make that mistake again.

Except here we are, four years later, with the most basic change, one which costs no money, having been forgotten again.

Last year, I picked Amherst, and since getting the right team out of 62, or 10-12 reasonable candidates, doesn’t happen very often, I feel it has to be mentioned.

This year, I am just too impressed with what I’ve seen from UW-Stevens Point to go anywhere else. Probably not a surprise to too many people. The number of teams that could win a title this year, though, seems a little larger than usual, and I can envision Amherst, Williams, Cabrini, UW-Whitewater, Illinois Wesleyan, Wash U. or Wooster hoisting Walnut and Bronze as well.

Should be a decent tournament. But it could have been better.