By Pat Coleman
Publisher, D3hoops.com
For the first year under a new system, it’s a start. We got four teams in from this year’s strongest league and two from the WIAC and CCIW. We also got four from the NESCAC, but there weren’t many teams left out that could truly claim to be better than the fourth-place team in the league.
So, at least getting the right teams into the field is a start. Small victories with this men’s bracket.
The redeeming factor is that unlike some years, where there are a handful of dominant teams placed in one bracket, this year there are no dominant teams at all. Our pre-tournament No. 1 is Hope, a team whose own fans aren't sure how good they are.
It's that kind of year.
In this preview, we pick a Cinderella story (a road team likely to make the Sweet 16) and a team most likely to disappoint, along with a champion for each bracket.
Hope Bracket
Bethany (17-10) at Capital (23-5), winner to Hope
(24-3)
Franklin (18-9) at Centre (25-2), Heidelberg (23-5) vs. Ohio
Wesleyan (20-7)
Loras (21-6) at UW-Whitewater (24-4), Lawrence (22-2) vs. Wheaton,
Ill. (19-7)
Pomona-Pitzer (15-12) at Occidental (21-5), winner to Whitworth
(20-6)
A geographically challenged bracket, to be sure, and the one which the NCAA originally announced incorrectly, suggesting Occidental had gotten the first-round bye. Occidental is certainly more deserving, barely, than Whitworth, but geography trumps all. If they were handing out byes on merit, UW-Whitewater would have gotten one instead. If they were handing out bids on merit, Chapman would have gotten one. Then they wouldn’t have had to give anyone on that coast a bye.
Cinderella story: Might as well look at Pomona-Pitzer continuing its run. The Sagehens have won six out of seven, which might not sound impressive on the surface until you remember they were 9-11 when that run started. They know Occidental well, with a five-point home loss and a 15-point win on Oxy’s home floor. Pomona-Pitzer would win 41-38 if it had to.
Disappointment: Other than what Occidental felt after being the victim of a second consecutive post-release bracket correction, that’s actually what we’d use to describe UW-Whitewater. The Warhawks don’t have a track record of postseason success, with their only tournament win in recent years coming against the SCAC’s fourth place team. So it doesn’t inspire confidence.
Champion: Hope over Lawrence, though I gave some thought to Lawrence over Centre and UW-Whitewater over Hope.
Augustana Bracket
Aurora (22-6) at Augustana (22-5), Washington U.
(19-6) vs. Wooster (23-4)
Buena Vista (21-6) at St. Thomas (23-4), Chicago (18-7) vs.
UW-Stevens Point (22-6)
St. Mary’s, Md. (17-11) at Guilford (24-4), Widener (22-5)
vs. Averett (14-14)
Maryville, Tenn. (24-2) at Millsaps (25-3), Fontbonne (21-6) vs.
Mary Hardin-Baylor (25-3)
Just like last year, the lower left-hand bracket has 16 teams in it while another has two byes. Wooster could have been moved out of here and Augustana could’ve gotten the first-round bye it deserved. Wooster slides nicely into the Gettysburg bracket, for example, with Elms going up to play King’s and Clarkson, the veritable 16 seed, actually playing the 1 or 2 seed in Plattsburgh State. But it’s as if the NCAA has only one copy of a 59-team bracket and it has 16 lines filled in the lower left.
Cinderella story: If there’s a lower-seeded team capable of making significant noise, it’s Aurora. This is Larry Welton’s last hurrah in the NCAA Tournament and you know how seniors can be in March.
Disappointment: Mary Hardin-Baylor. The Crusaders come in with No. 2 scorer Jason Wagner having played just five minutes in the ASC Tournament and with nobody having started all 28 games.
Champion: Guilford over Washington U.
Amherst Bracket
Both sub-.500 teams were placed in this bracket. Putting John Jay in the lower bracket as a first-round game for Mass-Dartmouth or Ursinus (swapping Baptist Bible up to Mass-Dartmouth) would’ve balanced that. This is a bracket with 14 teams – it doesn’t need two 16 seeds. And why are “16 seeds” playing in the games opposite bye teams? These are supposed to be 8/9 games and 7/10 games. Instead they are a 12/13 game (Moravian/John Jay) and a 9/14 game (King’s/Clarkson). Clarkson being in this bracket is unavoidable because of geography but John Jay is mobile. Oh well. Welcome to the Sweet 16, Amherst and Plattsburgh.
Cinderella story: Nazareth looks like the only possible lower-seeded team with a Sweet 16 shot, though John Jay has more than a chance to win its first-round game. Bowdoin has a shot too, but as the virtual sixth seed it’s hard to peg them as a Cinderella.
Disappointment: None, other than an overall malaise about this bracket. It contains three teams in Patrick Abegg’s power ranking’s Top 25, six who aren’t in the top 50 and three who aren’t even in the top 100.
Champion: Amherst over Brandeis, with Plattsburgh State the only other possibility.
Ursinus Bracket
Baptist Bible (18-9) at Ursinus (25-2), Virginia
Wesleyan (22-6) vs. Worcester Polytech (21-6)
Salem State (21-6) at Gettysburg (22-4), Scranton (19-8) vs. Elms
(22-6)
Middlebury (19-7) at Rochester (20-5), Farmingdale State (22-5)
vs. Penn State-Behrend (23-4)
Coast Guard (21-6) at Trinity, Conn. (21-6), winner to
Mass-Dartmouth (25-3)
This isn’t a bad bracket, with a decent mix of teams, including WPI on the road trip from eastern Massachusetts to the Philadelphia area. Not that it couldn’t be improved by having, say, Wooster. You could put the Scots in this bracket, send Penn State-Behrend to the Centre pod and Ohio Wesleyan to the Augustana pod and fix all sorts of problems, all within 500 miles.
Cinderella story: Elms. They’ve been well-detailed on the site in the past thanks to narrow losses to Amherst and Brandeis. They have two wins against tournament teams as well, in Bowdoin and Worcester Polytech. Of course, they also have lost to Becker and Castleton State.
Disappointment: Mass-Dartmouth. After a 20-0 start the Corsairs have gone 5-3, and two of those wins are against Mass-Boston, which finished 2-24. Are they really sliding or does Rhode Island College just have their number?
Champion: Rochester over Ursinus. The Yellowjackets have swing men who can keep up with Nick Shattuck and big bodies to neutralize Michael Shema. Maybe they hit enough free throws to make it back to Salem.
In Salem, Guilford over Hope and Amherst over Rochester, with Guilford defeating Amherst for the title. It’s a true championship game, at least, even though Amherst comes out of a weak bracket. So that raises the question – is the South back on track, or just the Old Dominion Athletic Conference?