Too soon to talk repeat?

Oh yes, Henry Vetter is still there in a Bantams uniform. Oh yes, Trinity (Conn.) is still No. 1 in the country in Division III men's basketball. Trinity (Conn.) athletics photo

By Ryan Scott
D3hoops.com

We take great effort to keep expectations low early in the Division III basketball season. What happens in November is rarely indicative of how things play out in March. But with the way the defending champions are playing, it’s hard not to lean towards talk of repeat winners.

Trinity was the more likely choice. The Bantams graduated just two of their 10-man rotation and bring back their top four scorers, essential for the team-oriented, defensive approach that claimed Trinity’s first title last year. Running, generally, two lines of five guys with a similar intensity wore down opponents and a disciplined, mistake-free offense maximized efficiency and solidified wins.

St. Joseph (Conn.) tried to ruin the party on Wednesday, with a chance to win at the end of the game that became a turnover. Trinity was badly outrebounded and shot poorly, but the defense was as good as ever, forcing 22 turnovers and scoring 30 points off of them on the way to a four point win.

The Bluejays were Trinity’s toughest opponent to date, but that will change once they get into NESCAC play. It will not be easy, but the defending champs are playing better than just about everyone, thanks to their age and experience. Yes, other teams will grow and learn and improve over the course of the year, but Trinity is in the driver’s seat to be the first repeat men’s champion since WashU in 2009.

The women last had a repeat champion, well, eight months ago. NYU is on a 69 game winning streak, but graduating two-time National Player of the Year, Natalie Bruns; first-team All American, Belle Pellecchia; as well as Jamie Behar, Mary Kate Fahey, and Chloe Teter left just 43% of the scoring coming back. This combined with strong returning rosters at Scranton and Oshkosh (among others) led a few voters (me included) to pick someone else atop the poll.

Early results, however, have proven the Violet bench was stocked with talent. NYU has seemingly not lost a step; they might even be better! Both Trinity and NYU are outperforming their previous highs on the D3datacast efficiency ratings and have sizable gaps to second place.

NYU has scored at least 99 points in all seven games thus far and topped 100 four times. Trinity’s average first half score through five games is 48-22. While neither schedule is elite (yet), the defending champs are dominating Top 100 teams like Union and New Paltz to the same degree as any other opponent.

There will be challengers, obviously. The Scranton women went to Pitt and went toe-to-toe with a D-I power conference squad, coming from behind to win. Johns Hopkins went ten blocks down the road and dominated D-I Morgan State from start to finish. We aren’t sure how NYU would fare against D-I competition, because they won’t answer coach Meg Barber’s calls.

Caroline Peper, showing flashes of All American ability during two years as a bench contributor and essentially a spot-up shooter last year, has come into her own as a scorer, leading NYU with 23 points per game, including 41 (with 11 made threes) against Merchant Marine, who was receiving votes in the preseason Top 25 poll. She’s the only senior on a roster where everyone is feeling out new roles, indicating that the Violets can only get better.

Anticipating a clash with Scranton sometime in March, hopefully the final in Salem, is both exciting and premature - but with the level of play both teams are exhibiting early - it's hard not to get ahead of ourselves. If it happens, the Royals will almost certainly be underdogs.

Some other storylines and surprises from the early part of the year:

Hope and Whitewater had relatively low expectations for such storied women’s basketball programs. The Warhawks having lost perhaps their best senior class ever and Hope coming off their first missed NCAA tournament since 2012. Both teams sit with just one loss each against Top 15 schedules and in the Top 12 of NPI. They’ll each face tough tests in conference, but their non-conference success has prepared them well.

Looking at the current NPI for men’s basketball, three teams with new coaches stand out. Middlebury, York (Pa.), and Trinity (Texas) all lost major talent to graduation and coaches to other schools.

Trinity’s Marwan Elrakabawy spoke at the Great Lakes Invitational about his adjustment to inheriting a team defined by its zone defense. The Tigers showed off some new wrinkles in a stellar performance at the GLI and a victory over D3hoops.com No. 9 Emory and they’ve got a huge matchup against St. Thomas this weekend in Houston.

Jared Wagner graduated from York in 2020, transitioned quickly to the bench and took over the top job in late September when Matt Hunter left for Gettysburg. While many expected a regression for any number of reasons, the Spartans are playing with an intensity familiar to anyone who watched Wagner play. With victories over Hobart and Johns Hopkins to start the year, York is one to watch going forward.

Middlebury has been lost a bit in recent years, given the national success of so many other NESCAC mates. Just 12-12 last year, losing starters Sam Stevens and David Brennan to graduation and having legendary coach Jeff Brown retire, the Panthers’ 4-1 start, with wins over Union, Stevens, and RPI, may portend a rebound under new coach, Matt Goldsmith. With the UAA-NESCAC challenge on the horizon, Middlebury could be a dark horse challenger in one of Division III’s best leagues.

One final possible surprise is down in Texas. The St. Thomas men have been Top 25 for a while now (and they may have their best ever squad this year), but the women’s team is looking to make waves as well. Having played just three Division III games thus far, there are still a lot of questions, but getting wins over Whitman and Whitworth in Washington and then a 14 point destruction of D3hoops.com No. 23 East Texas Baptist last week was an announcement.

The Celts won’t set foot anywhere close to the Eastern Time Zone unless they escape the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, but they are indicative of the many stories to follow this D3hoops season. We may not know if Trinity and NYU are actually the best until March, but there will be plenty of great basketball between now and then.

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