Welcome to the 2020 Division III NCAA Tournament! Let's hope it's a good one. Photo by Steven Herppich

By Gordon Mann
D3hoops.com

The last two years we’ve said there’s more parity in Division III women’s basketball. Then we’ve quietly tucked that statement in our coat pocket come NCAA Tournament time and hoped nobody noticed while the top teams steamrolled through the bracket.

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Here are the Top 25 rankings for the national semifinalists the last two years when those teams entered the NCAA Tournament

• 2019: 1, 2, 3, 9. We were an epic Scranton comeback win over Tufts away from going 1-2-3-4
• 2018: 1, 2, 3, 5. No. 4 Hope played No. 1 Thomas More in the Elite 8

Home teams went 37-2 in the NCAA Tournament last year and 32-7 the year before that. Some of that is to be expected. Even with the geographic limitations inherent in building the Division III Tourament bracket, the home team is often the best of the bunch. But, however you look at it, the last two Marches have been mostly devoid of madness.

Our preseason poll suggested this season could be different. Six teams received votes as the top team in the country, and it wasn’t even the top six teams in the poll. You could’ve made a strong case back then that the two highly ranked teams without No. 1 votes were also national title contenders. You still can make that case. Those teams are No. 1 Hope and No. 4 Wartburg.

One coach who knows what dominance looks like told me that there isn’t one overwhelming favorite this year. There are more teams that could win the national championship this time around.

And maybe that’s true. After all, this is the year that Bethel lost to St. Mary’s (Minn.) when the Royals were 15-0 and the Cardinals 2-13. We also finally got a champion in the MIAC that wasn’t St. Thomas (Bethel again) and one of our current top six teams didn’t receive any votes in the preseason (Bethel, yet again).

The last time we had a national champion without a perfect record was eight years ago when Illinois Wesleyan won the title. The hopes of extending that streak rest coincidentally on the shoulders of No. 1 Hope, which coincidentally could play Illinois Wesleyan in the second round on Saturday night.

This is the preview where we try, frequently in vain, to predict where madness will occur and where the result will be same as it ever was.

For each quadrant we’ll pick the best first-round matchup, a surprise team that could win both games on the road this weekend, a disappointment that may not live up to its seeding or ranking this weekend and a projected winner.

As usual, the only guarantee for these picks is that some will be very wrong.

Tufts quadrant (top left)

Erica DeCandido and Tufts got past Messiah in the Sweet 16 last year. Could they do it again if those teams meet in the Elite 8? Photo by Tom Nettleton, d3photography.com

No. 2 Tufts (26-1) vs. SUNYIT (20-7); Cortland (21-6) at Western New England (21-5)
New England College (21-6) at Ithaca (22-5); Williams (18-8) vs. Albright (22-5)
Husson (19-8) at SUNY New Paltz (24-3); No. 20 DeSales (23-4) vs. Smith (24-4)
Keystone (21-6) at No. 19 Messiah (23-4); Eastern Connecticut (23-4) vs. St. John Fisher (21-6)

Best first round matchup: Albright has flown a little off our radar this year because they lost both times the Lions cracked our Top 25. So maybe you haven’t heard about Dejah Terrell yet. The sophomore is averaging 22 points and 12 rebounds per game. She leads Albright in blocks (83) and is second in made three-pointers (40). We might have to rename the Team of the Week after her and Sydney Kopp of DePauw. Maybe you’re also not familiar with Williams because they dwell in the shadow of the three NESCAC juggernauts. The Ephs haven’t been great away from Williamstown (7-5) but they played almost a quarter of their games against NCAA Tournament teams. They will not be intimidated.

Most likely to surprise: Which team has the best chance to win two games on the road this weekend? That’s Tufts but the Jumbos are only on the road because the Tufts men have hosting rights this weekend. Which other team has the best chance to win two games on the road? That’s DeSales which is one of several teams that’s peaking at the right time. Winners of 14 in a row, the Bulldogs guards can fly, their wings can score and they have good height down low. Beating SUNY New Paltz in New York won’t be easy but DeSales has a chance.

Most likely to disappoint: No one, really. There are only three ranked teams in this bracket and they could all advance to next weekend. SUNY New Paltz could lose at home, and so could Ithaca, but those aren’t major upsets.

Who’s going to win: Despite the weekend road trip to Springfield, Massachusetts, the Jumbos are the prohibitive favorites to advance. They’ll beat always-scrappy Ithaca in the Sweet 16 and get past Messiah in the Elite 8. Speaking of the Falcons, shout out to Leah Springer. For as good as Dejah Terrell has been, Springer was that conference’s MVP. I look forward to watching her battle Tufts All-American Erica DeCandido with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

Wartburg quadrant (Lower left)

Maddie Hasson is averaging 16.7 points and 8.1 rebounds per game for the Polar Bears.

Monmouth (21-6) at No. 5 Wartburg (24-3); Wheaton (Ill.) (20-7) vs. No. 10 Whitman (24-3)
Randolph-Macon (18-9) at No.15 Transylvania (25-2); No. 11 Oglethorpe (27-1) vs. William Peace (23-4)
Redlands (21-6) at No. 8 UW-Whitewater (23-3); No. 23 Trine (21-6) vs. Benedictine (24-3)
Brooklyn (21-6) at No. 3 Bowdoin (25-2); New York University (20-5) vs. Emmanuel (21-7)

Best first round matchup: The CCIW has lost a little luster nationally because the conference hasn’t advanced a team through the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2014. But Wheaton has one of Division III’s best all-around players in Hannah Frazier, who can shoot, defend and distribute. She’ll need a big game and some help to beat Whitman which has a very good forward of its own in NWC Player of the Year Makana Stone. Maddy Burdett in the backcourt tips the balance in favor of the Blues, but this should be a good game.

Most likely to surprise: Trine head coach Andy Rang has taken a Thunder team that just graduated its best player ever and developed it into a Top 25 team again. Trine is underrated at No. 23, considering the Thunder have lost three games to No. 1 Hope by a combined 18 points. Trine allows fewer points than any team in Division III except Hope and Haverford. While UW-Whitewater isn’t uncomfortable playing low-scoring games, Tara Bieniewicz gives the Thunder an advantage over the Warhawks in terms of three-point shooting. No offense to the Whitewater, but I like Trine to advance through this weekend.

Most likely to disappoint: Oglethorpe is a one-loss team just outside the Top 10 in the country, and yet the Stormy Petrels could be done before the weekend is over. A loss to Transylvania on Saturday night would mean Oglethorpe would see its season end in the same place against the same opponent in the same round of the Tournament as a year ago, despite the Stormy Petrels’ clear improvement over last year. That would be a bit of a bummer.

Who’s going to win: Some expected Bowdoin to take a step back when the Polar Bears graduated three really good players last season, including All-American Abby Kelly. What they didn’t appreciate is how good players like Sela Kay were. Kay is the team’s second leading scorer as a sophomore and senior forward Maddy Hasson has turned into a scoring machine, especially off the dribble. Assuming that Wartburg gets to host next weekend, winning two games in Iowa would be especially tough. But the Polar Bears just beat Amherst and Tufts on the road so I’ll take Bowdoin over Wartburg in the Elite 8.

Amherst quadrant (Lower left)

Emily Sheehan and Scranton have a potential rematch of last year's sectional semifinal with Christopher Newport this weekend. Photo by Tom Nettleton, d3photography.com

Framingham State (22-5) at No. 7 Amherst (22-4); Rowan (24-3) vs. Merchant Marine (23-4)
Gettysburg (22-5) at Marymount (23-4); George Fox (21-6) vs. Montclair State (21-6)
No. 21 Texas-Dallas (22-5) at No. 16 Trinity (Texas) (23-4); No. 14 Mary Hardin-Baylor (24-4) vs. No. 22 Austin (23-4)
Endicott (18-10) at No. 12 Scranton (24-3); No. 24 Christopher Newport (23-4) vs Widener (21-5)

Best first round matchup: Pick a game in the Texas pod! They should all be great and good luck predicting who comes out of this weekend. Trinity beat Austin twice but lost to Texas-Dallas who beat Mary Hardin-Baylor. Mary Hardin-Baylor is the highest ranked team of the group, but also the only one without a win over any of the others. Austin is the lowest ranked of the group but has wins over Trinity and Texas-Dallas.  

Most likely to surprise: George Fox has best chance to win two games on the road this weekend, though the Bruins are arguably the favorite going into Marymount pod. Flying cross country to play two games is never easy, but I suspect George Fox has more length than most of the quality opponents that the other three teams in this pod have seen. The Bruins can be streaky on offense and they rely heavily on three-point shooting, with Hailey Hartney, Kaylee Bishop, and Kylin Collman all shooting over 35 percent from behind the arc. If they don’t have an off night, George Fox should advance through this weekend.

Most likely to disappoint: Marymount isn’t the favorite in its own pod, the Texas regional is a four-way toss up and Amherst isn’t going to lose this weekend. So  that leaves Scranton, except ...

Who’s going to win: I like the Lady Royals to win this quadrant. Scranton is one of a handful of teams, along with DeSales and Messiah, that stumbled around the holidays and dropped in the rankings because they had losses clustered together. The Lady Royals have rebounded and are a well-balanced team. Makenzie Mason is a versatile scorer, Emily Sheehan is an elite defender, Bridget Monaghan is a budding star, and there are lots of complementary pieces here. The Lady Royals need good performances from Sofia Recupero and Danielle McCurdy in the post. Whoever emerges from the Texas pod will join Amherst, George Fox and Scranton for a D3hoops.com Classic reunion, and then I’ll take the Lady Royals over Amherst in the Elite 8.

Hope quadrant (Lower right)

Good luck scoring on Olivia Voskuil and Hope. The most points they've allowed in a game is 55. Photo by Hope College athletics

Grove City (25-2) vs. No. 1 Hope (27-0); Illinois Wesleyan (19-8) vs. Berea (25-3)
Haverford (23-4) at No. 9 Baldwin Wallace (26-2); No. 18 Chicago (20-5) vs. La Roche (20-6)
Bethany Lutheran (23-3) at No. 6 Bethel (26-1); UW-Oshkosh (18-10) vs. Edgewood (25-2)
Webster (20-7) at No. 4 DePauw (27-1); No. 13 Loras (23-4) vs. UW-La Crosse (19-7)

Best first round matchup: It’s unusual to pick a game involving a home team, but Haverford/Baldwin-Wallace could be the closest game of the night in this quadrant. This isn’t a slight to Baldwin Wallace, whom I think will win this game. But trying to score on Haverford is like swimming through oatmeal. The Fords have a stifling defense and Bobbi Morgan’s teams are always tough to beat on the road come tournament time. Eventually the Yellow Jackets’ senior-laden lineup should prevail. 

Most likely to surprise: Given where UW-Oshkosh was earlier this season, the Titans should feel like they're playing with house money. Oshkosh lost three of its first four conference games and was 4-5 in the WIAC on Feb. 5. The Titans entered the conference playoffs just five games over .500 and knowing they’d need two road wins in a conference where those are hard to get. After beating Stout at home in the WIAC quarterfinals, the Titans crushed Whitewater in the semis and then won a thriller with Eau Claire. Some say the most dangerous team is the one that faced down elimination and survived. Consider Oshkosh very dangerous.

Most likely to disappoint: Three of the four host teams could lose this weekend, but I think Baldwin Wallace is the only one that does. Chicago is a battle-tested team that prepped for the tough UAA schedule with an even tougher non-conference slate. Mia Farrell, Taylor Lake and Miranda Burt are all potent scorers for the Maroons and the Yellow Jackets will be hard pressed to shut all of them down. Chicago wins a close one to advance through the weekend.

Who’s going to win: Undefeated seasons in this part of the country don’t create as clear a path to the Final Four as they do farther east. The Flying Dutch will have to survive Illinois Wesleyan’s press, Chicago’s balance and then either the excellence of Bethel’s Taite Anderson or DePauw’s Sydney Kopp. Hope’s got the defense and depth to do it.

Championship weekend

So that leaves us with Tufts and Bowdoin on one side of the bracket and Scranton and Hope on the other.

The first meeting between Tufts and Bowdoin this year was an instant classic, which the Jumbos won, 97-88. Bowdoin returned the favor in the NESCAC title game, winning at Tufts, 70-60. Who wins the rubber match? No idea. Flip a coin. It's that close.

Scranton has size, just like Hope, but the Flying Dutch have more speed in the post. Scranton has good defense on the perimter, just like Hope, but the Flying Dutch have a little more length. Scranton is a really good team, just like Hope. But the Flying Dutch are a little better this season.

As for the title game prediction, take a look at Hope's results so far this season on this page.

Would you believe me if I told you Hope lost its top scorer, Sydney Muller, to season-ending injury at some point in that run?

Based on those results, could you tell me when that happened?

Hope's defense is always very good. This year it's better than that. The Flying Dutch are allowing 42 points per game and have allowed 50 points just six times. 

They can also score, with Olivia Voskuil, Kenedy Schoonveld and Lauren Newman picking up for Muller's absence.

Earlier this season Hope head coach Brian Morehouse became the fastest college basketball coach at any level to win 600 games. This season ends with him cutting down the nets after a national championship.