Men's NCAA Tournament preview

More news about: New York University | Trinity (Conn.) | UW-Platteville | Wesleyan
Mar 06, 2025
The Violets of NYU just moved into the No. 1 spot in the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll. Fortuitous timing? Only three times has the No. 1 team in our final regular season poll gone on to win the whole thing, which is exactly what Division III men's basketball is like.
NYU athletics photo by Bella Dunning
 

By Ryan Scott
D3hoops.com

We enter the 2025 Division III men’s basketball NCAA Tournament with perhaps less confidence than ever before. The D3hoops.com Top 25 has first place votes split almost evenly among UW-Platteville, NYU, and Wesleyan. There were all sorts of upsets in conference tournaments across the country and the new NPI rating is another way to show just how close so many of the top teams are to each other.

Of course, I’m setting this up to put as little pressure as possible on the predictions and picks I’m about to make. I haven’t predicted the correct champion since way back in my first attempt at this preview with Babson in 2017. I don’t expect this year will be any different. Regardless, I hope this preview gets you up to date on the players and stories to be watching over the next three weeks and I hope to see you and your team in Fort Wayne!

On a Drew team with a lot of scorers, Peso Crump is one of them.
Drew athletics photo by Karen Mancinelli
 

Upper Left quadrant

No. 16 Delaware Valley (15-12) at No. 1 Wesleyan (26-1); No. 8 Chatham (23-4) vs. No. 9 Gettysburg (20-7)

No. 14 Husson (21-7) at No. 4 WPI (24-3); No. 6 Stockton (19-8) vs. No. 11 Ithaca (18-9)

No. 10 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (20-7) at No. 5 Ramapo (20-7); No. 3 Drew (24-3) vs. No. 13 Mary Washington (13-14)

No. 12 Huntingdon (22-6) at No. 2 Emory (20-5); No. 7 Guilford (22-6) vs. No. 15 Berry (19-8)

Players to Watch: Emory’s Jair Knight has an athleticism we rarely see at the Division III level and is a legitimate national player of the year candidate if he can lead his team deep in March. We’ll also see four other outstanding players go head-to-head. CMS’s AJ Rohosy is a D-I transfer who’s got size, skill, and scoring ability and will face Ramapo’s Peter Gorman, NJAC Player of the Year, averaging 21 points per game. Ithaca’s Logan Wendell will be trading buckets with EJ Matthews-Spratley of Stockton, each of whom topped 35 points multiple times this year.

Upset Alert: Don’t let the record disparity fool you, Drew might have almost twice as many wins as Mary Washington, but they also have their hands full. UMW played one of the toughest schedules in the country with a very young team that’s rounding into form at the right time. They are also led by Marcus Kahn, who coached Cabrini to the national title game in 2012. I think Drew wins this, but don’t be surprised if Mary Washington gets to .500 at the expense of the Rangers.

Things to Know: WPI head coach Chris Bartley owns a burger joint across the street from Harvard founded by his parents - check it out if you’re in town for the Tufts pod… Del Val junior Antonio Redding, whose scoring heroics got the Aggies to the tournament, is looking to finish the season with 50% shooting for field goals and three-pointers and better than 90% from the free throw line… Chatham has had a men’s basketball team for less than a decade.

What Will Happen: Quite a bit of chalk in the first round, meaning teams on the top line win. I think CMS beats Ramapo. Not a great matchup for the Roadrunners and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps has been on my Top 25 ballot most of the season. I also think they top Drew. Emory and Guilford played early in the season, but Emory knocked down their first nine threes in that game, so it’s tough to base anything on it. The rematch really could go either way. Emory has had so many tournament disappointments at home, I’m giving them this one. Wesleyan romps through their pod, beating Chatham. Stockton’s depth and speed can overwhelm opponents or themselves, depending on the game, still I think they put two together and take out host WPI.

In the second weekend, I think Wesleyan makes fewer mistakes than Stockton and Emory’s got the size and depth to overcome CMS. Wesleyan playing at home makes the difference in a squeaker over an Emory squad who finds their November form again in March. A really good weekend of games either way.

Jabril Robinson has had eight games with six or more assists and seven games with 18 or more points for Randolph-Macon this season.
Photo by Mike Atheron, d3photography.com
 

Lower Left quadrant

No. 15 Neumann (20-7) at No. 1 Trinity, Conn. (24-3); No. 5 Keene State (22-5) vs. No. 11 Clark (18-9)

No. 12 Utica (21-7) at No. 4 Montclair State (21-6); No. 5 Hamilton (20-6) vs. No. 10 Western New England (21-6)

No. 16 John Jay (19-8) at No. 3 Christopher Newport (22-5); No. 7 Roanoke (23-5) vs. No. 13 Pfeiffer (18-7)

No. 14 Westfield State (21-6) vs. No. 2 Randolph-Macon (23-4); No. 9 Catholic (22-5) at No. 6 Franklin & Marshall (21-6)

Players to Watch: Octavio Brito is an elite scorer for Keene State with the size to bang down low and a deft shooting touch. He’s already topped 2,000 points for his career and can single-handedly turn a game. Jahn Hines has already led Christopher Newport to one national championship and he’s likely to be national player of the year if he does it again. An unassuming superstar, he’ll have to be near flawless to get the Captains back to Fort Wayne. Jacob Morales started at Springfield, walked on at Rutgers, and is now starring at Montclair State.

Upset Alert: Western New England is loaded with talent, six fourth- or fifth-year players who’ve been tapped for greatness most of their careers and have just one last chance to realize that potential. Hamilton is big, but their strength is in the backcourt. If the Golden Bears can be ferocious on the glass, they can survive the first weekend and perhaps meet up with Trinity, where WNE head coach Colin Tabb was an all-time great.

Things to Know: John Jay might be the first basketball team ever to lose a conference semifinal, but win the championship; an ineligible player gave them a second shot at March glory and they made the most of the opportunity… Christopher Newport is very glad to be at home; they spent seven hours on the bus overnight last weekend waiting for a wind advisory to open the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel… This quadrant represents 16 previous trips to the Final Four.

What Will Happen: Trinity has been strong and they were in Ft. Wayne just last season. I’m calling a Clark win over Keene, but they hit a Bantam brick wall. A similar fate for WNE, who I think escapes the first weekend with a win over host, Montclair. Roanoke wins and Catholic pulls out a nail-biter over F&M, but both fall to perennial powers, Christopher Newport and Randolph Macon.

That matchup in the second weekend, between championship coaches Josh Merkel and John Krikorian will be one for the ages. Both guys always have their players in peak condition come March and neither team makes many mistakes. Defense, physicality, execution. As much as I’ve regretted picking against the Yellow Jackets in recent years, I’m going CNU in this one, but it takes too much out of them and they fall to Trinity in Connecticut the next night.

Braylen Salters is a freshman starter for Pitt-Bradford and one of five players averaging in double figures, at 15.7 points per game.
Pitt-Bradford athletics photo
 

Upper Right quadrant

No. 14 Cortland (17-11) vs. No. 1 NYU (24-1); No. 9 John Carroll (22-5) at No. 10 York, Pa. (21-6)

No. 16 Lewis & Clark (15-12) at No. 4 St. Thomas, Texas (25-2); No. 7 Cal Lutheran (22-5) vs. No. 12 Hardin-Simmons (18-9)

No. 15 Bryn Athyn (20-8) at No. 3 Hampden-Sydney (21-5); No. 8 TCNJ (20-7) vs. No. 11 Pitt-Bradford (23-3)

No. 13 Yeshiva (18-10) at No. 2 Tufts (21-5); No. 6 St. Joseph’s, Maine (24-4) vs. No. 5 Redlands (22-4)

Players to Watch: Adam Brazil, Hampden-Sydney’s senior point guard, another national player of the year candidate, runs the show for the defending runners-up and can single-handedly change games; given the rivalry, he might have mixed feelings about being compared to Buzz Anthony, but it’s certainly apt. Zevi Samet’s next bucket will be his 1,800th career point in just three seasons at Yeshiva. He hit what proved to be the game winner in the Skyline championship - a fallaway three with two guys in his face. NYU’s Tristan How, a grad transfer from UVA, leads the team in scoring and rebounding, and is a stabilizing force on a team full of stars.

Upset Alert: Redlands and St. Joe’s are right next to each other in NPI and should not have been bracketed together first round, so you can’t call it an upset. I won’t be surprised if Yeshiva wins, but I can’t pick it. York was one of my sleepers coming in, but the matchup with John Carroll isn’t favorable for them. The same goes for Hardin-Simmons against Cal Lu; the Cowboys struggled through injuries in the meat of their schedule, but lost too many to get a favorable draw. Perhaps the most likely upset is Pitt-Bradford over TCNJ? As you can see, there’s a lot of possibilities in this quadrant, which should mean a plethora of good games!

Things to Know: Pitt-Bradford made perhaps more appearances on D3Dunks than any other squad this year; they like to run and they are a ton of fun to watch… Sundown in Boston is 5:42pm, because of religious observance, if Yeshiva wins Friday, they won’t likely find out their second round opponent until two hours before gametime… St. Joe’s head coach Tyler Ackley used to work for NWU’s Dale Wellman, known as one of the best strategists in the game. I asked Wellman if he was helping Ackley prepare for Redlands’ chaotic style, he said, “Tyler’s got this. After losing in [our] conference championship, my ideal day isn’t watching film of someone else.”

What Will Happen: As I said, it’s very hard to predict upsets here. As much as it pains me, because I love watching Tufts, they might be the most likely high seed to underperform. I’ll pick Redlands out of that pod, Hampden-Sydney over Bradford, Cal Lutheran over St. Thomas, and NYU over John Carroll.

Yes, I picked all three SCIAC teams to the second weekend; the conference has been THAT good this year. I’m not sure I’d pick Redlands over Hampden-Sydney in Farmville, but I will in New York. That being said, home court will give the Violets the edge over both California schools. NYU won’t have five All Americans, but they’ve got five guys good enough to be on the list - that kind of depth and experience has meant consistency and dominance this year. I think it continues.

We promise, we haven't forgotten about Logan Pearson.
UW-Platteville athletics photo
 

Bottom Right Quadrant

No. 14 Grinnell (20-7) at No. 1 UW-Platteville (25-2); No. 8 Wisconsin Lutheran (25-3) vs. No. 9 Calvin (21-6)

No. 13 Central (17-11) at No. 4 WashU (19-6); No. 6 Denison (24-3) vs. No. 12 Franklin (21-7)

No. 16 Bethany Lutheran (14-11) vs. No. 3 Illinois Wesleyan (22-5); No. 5 St. John’s (24-3) at No. 10 Chicago (18-7)

No. 15 Greenville (20-7) at No. 2 UW-La Crosse (22-5); No. 7 Carthage (21-6) vs. No. 11 St. Norbert (22-6)

Players to Watch: Logan Pearson came into the year a slight favorite for national player of the year; I suspect that title gets decided by NCAA Tournament play. Platteville is one of the top seeds, but will only go as far as their star can take them. Central’s Josh Van Gorp is a local kid, he’s 6-10, he’s been conference Player of the Year twice, he’s back for a fifth year, but a first shot at the NCAA Tournament. He averages 23 and 11, shooting 67% from the floor.

Upset Alert: Wisconsin Lutheran is stacked with super-talented super seniors, but I’m not sure a loss to Calvin’s vaunted defense would really be an upset. The same goes for host Chicago over St. John’s. The surprises to look out for: a St. Norbert team on a very hot streak sniping a Carthage squad that might be tempted to look ahead one game? You’ve also got a Franklin team beloved by the computer rankings with nothing to lose against a Denison squad with a lot of expectations, but no real experience at this level. Those are two good ones to watch!

Things to Know: Van Gorp is just 48 points away from 2,000 for his career and he scored 55 in a game Feb. 1. ... Some years ago Greenville adopted the Grinnell System devised by David Arseneault Sr., whose son, David, Jr. has taken over the program and evolved those principles; these two teams boast the fastest pace in Division III, but they’ll look noticeably different from each other to the discerning eye… Calvin lost six of their first seven games and then reeled off 20 straight wins.

What Will Happen: I think Calvin gets the rematch with Platteville, who beat the Knights on opening night with a buzzer beater from Pearson; sadly, I think the season ends the same way it started. WashU’s got the size to stop Van Gorp and the depth to overwhelm whoever is next; Carthage has similarly proved they’ve got an unmatched toughness that gets them past La Crosse, even on the road. In perhaps a surprise, I’m going to pick the steady excellence of St. John’s over the high-ceiling inconsistency of Illinois Wesleyan.

I believe that continues through the second weekend as St. John’s takes down another CCIW foe before falling to Platteville, who survives an absolute battle of the titans with WashU to make the Final Four they were so cruelly denied by fate and Cortez Garland last year.

Fort Wayne

It’s usually a bad idea to pick all top seeds to the Final Four, but that’s just what I’ve done this year. Wesleyan, Trinity, Platteville, and NYU have been uniquely stellar this season. Size, guard play, depth, experience. They all possess great coaching, tough defense, and resiliency.

We’ve got a NESCAC battle on one side of the bracket with Wesleyan and Trinity having split their two meetings this year, each winning on the other’s floor. Those games featured near unbelievable levels of execution between evenly matched teams who know each other very well. I think Trinity’s got a slight edge and experience in the Final Four, which pushes them to the championship game.

On the other side, a Platteville squad almost entirely intact from last year, when they were the favorites entering the tournament. The Pioneers have been on a mission all season to make up for falling short. NYU has had to replace National Player of the Year, Spencer Freedman, bringing in a number of decorated grad transfers. This Violets team has jelled remarkably well and proven themselves in many big moments. I think that magic is enough to propel them through.

In the final, defensive juggernaut Trinity against NYU’s potent scoring offense (neither team slacks much on the other side of the ball, though). I just think NYU has a slight lead in most of the major factors - a little more depth, a little more scoring, a little more size and skill. I’m predicting a close one, an exciting one, but we may have a UConn situation on our hands, where both men’s and women’s trophies go back to the same case.