Men's NCAA Tournament preview

Mar 04, 2020
Danny Ashley shot 8-for-12 from the floor in the SUNYAC semifinals against Oswego, en route to a season-high 18 points. As a high seed, how far does Ryan Scott have Brockport going?
Brockport athletics photo
 

By Ryan Scott
D3hoops.com

This year the Division III men’s basketball NCAA Tournament has a bit of a different format. Eight teams will travel to Fort Wayne and play down to two, who will compete for the title two weeks later in Atlanta. With that in mind, I’m going to format the D3hoops.com tourney preview differently as well. Instead of breaking down quadrants, we’ll take a look at the eight “pod pairs” that will produce our Fort Wayne participants.

It’s been a unique season in Division III men’s basketball. The best teams played each other more often and (as a result) those top teams have lost more than we’ve seen in the past. In one sense it helps us know better how these contenders stack up against each other, but in another sense it illustrates the parity across the division. There are very few locks in this tournament; it’s truly anybody’s game.

Without further ado, let’s start in the top left of your bracket:

Skylar Sinon is one of four Ithaca players with between 49 and 64 made 3-pointers on the season.
Ithaca athletics photo
 

Brooklyn (13-15) at Swarthmore (26-1); Ithaca (23-5) vs. Babson (20-6)
Centenary, La. (18-9) at Texas-Dallas (21-6); Whitworth (21-6) vs. LeTourneau (23-5)

Ithaca and Brooklyn both got in the tournament by making big runs and winning their conference titles, peaking at the perfect time of year. Brooklyn runs into a buzzsaw, though, playing at Swarthmore, who is looking to complete a wire-to-wire run atop the D3hoops.com Top 25. It would be a seismic, historic performance for the Bulldogs to knock out the Garnet.

Ithaca is led by a senior Liberty League First Team backcourt in Riley Thompson and Sebastian Alderete and face a Babson team dealing with the loss of Frank Oftring late in the season. The ability of the Beavers to fully adjust to playing without him might be the difference here; they’ve shown flashes, but this weekend would be a great time to put it all together.

The Whitworth-LeTourneau game features a matchup that might well decide a place on the All-American first team. The Pirates’ Ben College is a pure scorer, while the Yellowjackets’ Nate West has a bit more of an all-around game, and stopping him will be key to winning. Watch the post game from Whitworth; they will have an advantage if they can win the battle inside.

Texas-Dallas has overcome a lot this season and, as host, will be the clear favorite over an unknown Centenary squad. The Gents struggled early, but come into this matchup on a 10-game winning streak. They have just one senior and no juniors in the rotation, so it’s very likely they’ve grown into a formidable foe just in time to make waves. Don’t be surprised if this is a first round upset no one saw coming!

Player to Watch: Swarthmore’s Vinny DeAngelo has been the top point guard all season. He’s fit in so well on a team with a deep, experienced roster, it’s easy to forget he’s a freshman. February has seen sparks of DeAngelo jumping a level on the court, which adds an extra dynamic to an already dangerous team.

Who will Win: Ithaca over Babson and then Swarthmore over the Bombers in round two. I really like Whitworth’s potential, but they’ve been inconsistent in the same way LeTourneau has been solid of late. I’ll call the Centenary first round upset, because you need a few of those, and I’ve got Nate West and company flying to Philly the second weekend. I hadn’t anticipated advancing the Garnet as far this year as last, but the bracket sets up really well for a Swarthmore return to Fort Wayne.

Coast Guard (14-13) at Brockport (24-3); Westfield State (20-7) vs. Middlebury (20-5)
Western Connecticut (20-7) at Tufts (21-6); New England College (21-6) vs. RPI (23-4)

Packy Witkowski averaged 24.2 points per game in February and shot 52 percent from behind the arc over that span to help Coast Guard make the NEWMAC tournament, then win the thing to boot.
Coast Guard athletics photo
 

Coast Guard is a Cinderella from a solid conference, which means they’re battle-tested and can’t be ignored. The Bears make their money on the boards and, in Brockport, they’ve run into a team that does it even better. In those rare instances Brockport loses, it’s because they run into hot shooting or lose the rebound battle; Coast Guard is capable of doing both, but they don’t have much margin for error.

Westfield announced themselves early with an upset of Amherst – an outcome that makes a lot more sense now that the Owls are dancing and the Mammoths are sitting at home. Jauch Green, Jr was MASCAC tourney MVP and the kind of singular talent who can produce NCAA heroics ... and he’s not even Westfield’s leading scorer. They’ve proven they can beat a NESCAC team and Middlebury has struggled down the stretch. The Panthers have as deep a lineup of guards as you’ll find anywhere in Division III, and they rebound, too, but the shooting touch has been inconsistent, making it tough for a neutral observer to have much confidence in them.

Tufts won the NESCAC tourney in pretty impressive fashion, but they’ve been far from invincible this season. While they were a bit of an afterthought in one of the nation’s best conferences, they’ve played a tough schedule and should be more than capable of taking out a Western Connecticut squad that took advantage of a down year in the Little East. Guy Rancourt’s guys are always scrappy, though defenders, but they will be physically overmatched against the Jumbos.

Calvin Cheek is third all-time in Division III for steals, and he’s just a junior. That quickness and defensive intensity powers a New England College team that likes to dictate pace and relentlessly wear down opponents. It also leads to some sloppiness of which RPI will be quick to take advantage. RPI's best players are big guys, so this will be a real clash of styles. NEC has taken down top foes before and the video won’t do justice to the experience of playing them.

Player to Watch: Justin Summers’ numbers have been down a bit this season, but that’s largely due to the strength of the Brockport squad around him. He’s still quite capable of massive individual performances if they’re necessary for the Golden Eagles to advance.

Who will Win: Westfield hasn’t lost since January, but I think that streak ends with Middlebury. The Panthers’ rebounding will be too much for the Owls, but not enough to top Brockport, who are just too consistent to fall to CGA. NEC is sneaky good and that first round matchup is the trickiest to predict, but you’re paying to make calls and my gut says RPI – and since we’ve already taken that step of faith, I’ll call for them to upset Tufts, too, setting up an East Region battle for Fort Wayne. Brockport will be home the whole way through and I think they take this “pod pair” and roll into the Elite Eight.

Concordia, Wis. (19-9) at UW-Platteville (22-4); St. Norbert (23-4) vs. St. Thomas (24-3)
Ripon (20-7) at St. John’s (25-2); UW-Eau Claire (19-9) vs. Whitman (20-7)

At 6-6, 240, Connor Curtis averages 13.7 points, shoots better than 60% from the field and is virtually tied for the St. Norbert team lead in rebounds.
Photo by Steve Frommell, d3photography.com
 

Concordia has just one senior averaging more than 10 minutes per game, so they may be here a year ahead of schedule. It’s hard to believe, but Platteville is in the same boat. It feels like this roster has been around forever, but all-everything “guard,” Carter Voelker, is the only one graduating. CUW have a great field goal percentage, but that will be tested by the size of the Pioneers, and have a real struggle ahead of them on the road.

St. Norbert isn’t coming into this tournament with a suspect resume. They scheduled well out of conference and beat two of the three WIAC teams in the NCAA Tournament. Their profile is very similar to St. Thomas; both teams are smaller and more versatile, without the dominant rebounders we’re used to seeing in the Midwest. UST has the best pair of sophomore guards in the country in Anders Nelson and Riley Miller, but the Tommies go much deeper than we’re used to, with a strong supporting cast. This one will likely come down to execution and shot selection.

Ripon accounted for half of St. Norbert’s losses this year, including the Midwest Conference final. They, too, scheduled very well and have some strong wins (and impressive losses) against tough competition. They’re very much the underdogs, but can certainly surprise a team like St. John’s. The Johnnies lost only twice, to Nebraska Wesleyan and St. Thomas, but they’ve had some first round disappointments in the past and want to write a new chapter this March.

UW-Eau Claire was one of the last teams into the tournament and their reward is one of the perennial contenders in Whitman. The Blues graduated a roster-worth of players last season, so this year’s group had to play into new roles. They’ve finished strong, for sure, but lack the consistency we’re used to from this Northwest Conference power. Whitman forces almost 20 turnovers again; Eau Claire averages half that. Something will have to give.

Player to Watch: St. John’s big man, Lucas Walford, has been ailing. The Johnnies won the MIAC tournament without him, but he’s averaging a double-double and as the team’s dominant inside presence; his availability would make a huge difference as the rounds go on.

Who will Win: Whitman’s experience and speed beats UWEC, and they’ll give Saint Johns a headache, especially if Walford isn’t available, but the Johnnies are far from a one-man show and survive the weekend. I have Platteville No. 2 on my Top 25 ballot and St. Thomas No. 4, so that will be quite a second round matchup (with the winner meeting my No. 3). I don’t ever want to underestimate a John Tauer team, but I really believe this is Platteville’s year to put it all together. They make the trek to Fort Wayne.

Methodist (18-10) at Emory (21-4); Pomona-Pitzer (21-5) vs. Centre (24-4)
Grove City (20-8) at Wooster (21-7); Lycoming (20-8) vs. Elmhurst (23-5)

Greg Mason was a fairly young guy when he took over the head coaching job at his alma mater 20 years ago. Now he has won 411 games and he has Centre back in the NCAA Tournament.
Photo by Larry Radloff, d3photography.com
 

Methodist was 3-2 against the ODAC this year and they beat some good teams in the USA South tournament. Beyond that, they’re pretty unknown. The Monarchs force a lot of turnovers and score plenty on the break. That might mean a favorable matchup in Emory, who is not quite as big as we’re used to seeing. They do rebound well, however, and the scoring is spread out across the team, making it much harder to secure an upset.

I was high on Pomona-Pitzer early in the season and they remain long and efficient on both ends of the floor. They had a few more slip-ups than I expected, but they secured the AQ and would prove a difficult out for Emory. However, to get there they have to survive a less convenient matchup with Centre. Perry Ayers and Jacob Bates are long, athletic, versatile players who mirror what the Sagehens throw at you. They take care of the ball and have good shooters all over the floor.

Wooster remains a strong candidate for an upset, not because they aren’t (as always) very good at what they do, but because it’s happened a few more times than expected this season. Danyon Hempy is an incredible scorer, but they’ll need Dontae Williams to step up in the paint to keep a young and hungry Grove City squad off the boards. The Wolvernines have used a nearly six rebound-per-game margin to power their run and get extra shots. Wooster is not going to go out easy in Steve Moore’s last season.

Elmhurst had to go on the road despite finishing about CCIW foe, North Central in the regional rankings. They did get a favorable matchup in Lycoming – not that Lyco isn’t good, just that their guard-oriented, pressure style plays to the Bluejays’ strengths with the ballhandling and outside shooting of Jake Rhode and Derek Dotlich. Of course Lycoming’s lead scorer and playmaker is named Darius Dangerfield – not a name you like to see in a single elimination tourney.

Player to Watch: Micah Elan is a sneaky good defender. He plays almost every minute of every game and while he’s Pomona-Pitzer’s leading scorer, it’s his passing that makes the Sagehens go. If he’s pressing too much, they are vulnerable, but an 8-for-12 night means the whole team is clicking. Oh, and he’s a 47% 3-point shooter.

Who will Win: Elmhurst and Wooster will take care of business against surprisingly challenging opponents and the Bluejays have just a few more weapons than the Scots in the second round. I was planning to make Pomona-Pitzer an upset pick, but I think the Centre matchup doesn’t suit them. Those Colonels are on a mission and I believe they take out Emory, too. That saves Sam Atkinson a flight, which he can use to buy me dinner in Fort Wayne as we discuss Elmhurst’s next opponent.

On to the right side:

Cairn (18-9) at Mount Union (25-3); St. John Fisher (19-8) vs. York, Pa. (22-5)
La Roche (21-6) at Wittenberg (26-2); Susquehanna (20-7) vs. Benedictine (20-6)

John Carroll did make the NCAA Tournament, in the form of Mount Union's 6-foot-11 center by the name of John Carroll. Here he is helping up the Purple Raiders' Nathan Bower-Malone.
Mount Union athletics photo
 

Susquehanna and Benedictine is one matchup I really can’t parse very well. I saw Susquehanna early and they looked like the kind of team that wins an NCAA Tournament game out of nowhere. Benedictine looked great early, as well, but faltered a bit down the stretch. The River Hawks have a 20-plus point average margin of victory since their Feb. 5 overtime loss to Scranton.

La Roche has only lost one game since Dec. 4 and avenged their AMCC championship defeat of a year ago. They bring an experienced starting lineup of upperclassmen and a balanced scoring attack into Wittenberg. Unfortunately the Tigers have a lot of the same; they also have Connor Seipel, a 15-point, 10-rebound obstacle in the middle of the floor. Not the ideal matchup for the Redhawks.

Mount Union has steamrolled through the Great Lakes region this year, dominating a brutal OAC schedule on the backs of seniors guard Nathan Bower-Malone and D’Vontay Friga. They are the title favorite of the Massey algorithm and, on paper, no match for Cairn. The CSAC warriors lost nine games in not the toughest schedule out there. The program has worked very hard to get where they are and the Highlanders certainly won’t go down without a fight.

York is peaking at exactly the right time, with a roster full of guys who are entering their third straight national tournament. Jared Wagner is averaging 18 points, six boards, and seven assists per game. His counterpart at St. John Fisher, Sammy Robinson, may not pass the same way, but he’s a game-changing, do-it-all guard who can also hang in the post.

Player to Watch: Nearly every team in this “pod pair” has smaller, more athletic interior players. That means 6-11 Mount Union center, John Carroll, can have outsized impact. He doesn’t play huge minutes or score a lot of points, but a guy that big can sure change the game. If he’s altering shots and keeping defenders occupied, the Raiders are even more dangerous and even more likely to win.

Who will Win: I like Susquehanna for an upset, but Benedictine’s weakness is efficient teams and the RiverHawks' 44% team field goal shooting probably won’t be enough to overcome 6-7, 245 Eric Grygo. That size will also likely bother Wittenberg, but the Tigers shoot well enough to make the Eagles pay. I see York taking Mount Union to the wire and proving this run may be more difficult than expected. Wittenberg was overlooked a bit this year for a weak non-conference schedule, but they will make their presence felt in Fort Wayne.

Wesley (18-9) at Randolph-Macon (26-2); TCNJ (19-8) vs. Marietta (21-6)
PSU-Harrisburg (20-7) at Johns Hopkins (24-3); Yeshiva (27-1) vs. WPI (20-7)

Gabriel Leifer has scored between 16 and 18 points in each of the past five games for Yeshiva, and has averaged 16.0 rebounds in that span.
Yeshiva athletics photo by Adena Stevens
 

This will be the first game all season where Randolph-Macon’s Buzz Anthony isn’t definitely the best player on the floor. Wesley’s Brian Cameron gets to showcase his All-American skills on a national stage and he rarely disappoints. The Wolverines may have to ugly the game up a bit to compete, but they have the size and tenacity to make things difficult for a talented, but young RMC squad.

TCNJ has survived the Battle of New Jersey with all the scars to prove it. They played a very tough non-conference schedule to boot and are as toughened as can be. The silent assassin Randy Walko will make things difficult for the every boisterous Jason Ellis as two incredibly deep, persistently relentless teams duke it out. This may be the most fun first round match-up for fans.

Penn State-Harrisburg had a dominant run through the NEAC and they boast a young roster that’s yet to reach its potential. Dylan Daniels, who averages more than four blocks per game and hails from just outside Baltimore, where they’ll be playing Johns Hopkins. They’ll need every bit of that rim protection to keep JHU junior Connor Delaney out of the paint. A one man wrecking crew, the Bluejays rely on Delaney to run the offense and, at time, be the offense.

WPI is known for a lockdown defense, but this year’s squad seems to be scoring more than ever. Junior Center Garrett Stephenson leads the way, but he’ll have his hands full with Yeshiva’s All-American Gabe Leifer, who averages 17, 14, and six. He was beat out for Skyline Player of the Year by teammate and sophomore 6-7 point guard Ryan Turell. The Macs’ quick passing offense and multiple offensive weapons will make them very dangerous. The rabid fanbase, fueled by a large Baltimore Jewish community forced JHU to split the sessions; it will feel like a home game for Yeshiva.

Player to Watch: There are so many superb individual performers in this “pod pair,” it’s hard to choose. Randolph-Macon freshman phenom, Miles Mallory was hurt for much of the ODAC tournament. He returned and played full minutes in the final, but his health could impact the team’s performance in perhaps the toughest east coast pod.

Who will Win: If you know me, you know I believe Yeshiva has the talent to make Fort Wayne. I think they are the best team in Baltimore and they will win the weekend over the host, Johns Hopkins. I think they match up very well with Randolph-Macon, but I fear the electroshock from Pat Coleman if I advance them too far. I think TCNJ wears down Marietta, but can’t quite do the same to RMC. Yellowjackets to the Elite Eight!

SUNY-Canton (16-11) at Springfield (22-4); St. Joseph, Conn. (26-2) vs. Hobart (21-5)
Nichols (20-8) at Stevens (23-4); Christopher Newport (21-6) vs. Colby (24-3)

Deante Bruton has been held to single digits just twice this season, and has scored nine or more in every game. He averaged 38.0 points per game in the Commonwealth Coast Conference tournament.
Nichols athletics photo
 

Colby loves to shoot threes and Christopher Newport loves keeping teams from shooting threes. Colby likes to run and score; CNU will run with you, but would prefer to run you into the ground. Both teams have a lot of talent and a tremendous air of confidence. CNU is without a lot of names you’d recognize from their Final Four runs, but retain plenty of players with experience there. This should be an outstanding matchup.

Nichols’ dynamic changed when they lost center Jerome Cunningham for the season. They don’t run very deep, but the guys who play know what they’re doing. You’ll find few teams with more tournament games under their belts and that might be the difference against a Stevens team that is incredibly solid, but untested in March. They beat Johns Hopkins and played Swarthmore to a standstill, so they can compete – we’re just not sure if they can win when it counts.

Jake Ross is the highest scoring active Division III basketball player and he’s been to the Final Four. Springfield relies on him and fellow senior, Heath Post, for a lot. Seven foot SUNY-Canton center Andrew Fitch, aims to make that more difficult. He’s the Division III active career leader in blocks and, hailing from Australia, does not find the Kangaroo mascot anything to laugh at. The Roos take 12-hour bus rides to northern Maine for conference games; they are not scared of anyone.

Jim Calhoun took just two seasons to reach the NCAA Tournament with the infant program at St. Joe’s. Despite losing top talent to transfer, they’ve put together a formidable roster with depth, size, speed, and scoring ability. Hobart lost just one game out of conference: a one point loss to Brockport in November. They have a 12.7 rebounding margin, but have trouble taking care of the ball. It remains to be seen how they’ll handle themselves against competition of this caliber.

Player to Watch: Sam Jefferson is likely going to be NESCAC Player of the Year, but he’s been hurt down the stretch and played admirably in Colby’s 2OT conference championship loss, despite being visibly less than 100%. If he’s healthy they are a championship contender, anything less than it will be a real struggle to survive the weekend.

Who will Win: Outside of Canton, I think any of these teams could easily win first round games. My heart say Springfield, St. Joe’s, Nichols, and Colby. (DeAnte Bruton is a 2,000-point scorer who has taken his game to another level in the playoffs for Nichols – seriously, check out his last three games.) I think St. Joe’s has enough weapons to neutralize Jake Ross and Colby shoots Nichols out of the gym. As much as I’d love to see Calhoun in Fort Wayne, I think Jefferson is fully ready with an extra week’s rest and Colby makes the trek.

Webster (19-8) at Nebraska Wesleyan (24-3); Bethany Lutheran (21-6) vs. Wash U (20-5)
Adrian (17-11) at North Central, Ill. (21-5); Transylvania (19-8) vs. UW-Oshkosh (19-8)

The UMAC representative to the tournament has won its first round game two years in a row, including Bethany Lutheran's win at St. John's in 2018.
Photo by Caleb Williams, d3photography.com
 

Transylvania is very good, but Oshkosh is the defending national champion and finally on a roll. I’m not sure we have more mismatched teams with identical records. The Pioneers played a tough schedule and earned their spot here, just not in convincing fashion. Consistency is not any word to describe the Titans, who’ve ballooned up and down all season in terms of execution. The roster’s been in some flux, but they’ve finally settled into roles that work and they’re almost more comfortable in March than the rest of the year.

Nate Schimonitz hurt himself in Nebraska Wesleyan’s ARC semifinal win and missed the final altogether. A candidate for Player of the Year and just six points shy of 2,000, we’re pretty sure he’ll be on the floor Friday, but what condition his game will be in is anybody’s guess. SLIAC champs, Webster, would love to jump on a weakened team, but even without Schimonitz, the Prairie Wolves are pretty good.

Adrian has two absolute studs in Jordan Harris and Jeremy Kalonji, but the MIAA did not have a strong year and the CCIW was particularly tough. North Central has four seniors and seven juniors who survived a conference struggle that took out almost everyone else. Connor Raridon and Matt Cappelletti are big forwards who can shoot and handle the ball. Still, they’ve been prone to stray a bit this season and Adrian can make you pay for mistakes.

Wash U could not get over the Emory hump and has struggled through injuries in a season they (and we) expected them to make a leap into title contention. Bethany Lutheran represents the UMAC penchant for first round upsets. The last time Wash U made the tournament, I picked them to win it all and they went out right away to Aurora. Will this year be an exorcising of the demons or a repeat performance?

Player to Watch: Jack Nolan is another uber-talented junior guard who shoots nearly 50% from the floor. He always looks like the best player on the floor, but Wash U will need him to be a little more aggressive if they want to survive the weekend. He hit 11 field goals in big wins over Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan early in the season, the only times he’s been in double digits this year. If he’s hitting ten shots or more on Friday, we’re in for a March treat!

Who will Win: It’s a hamstring injury for Schimonitz, which is a tough injury to play well through. I think they get by Webster, but lose to Wash U. North Central and Oshkosh will rematch the first game of the season… with the same result. I believe North Central is more talented, but they’ve not come through when it counts and Oshkosh knows how to win. I think we see the Titans in Fort Wayne once again.

Third Weekend

I’m not sure Brockport has seen anything like what Swarthmore has to offer, but the Garnet have been less consistent this season and revealed far more chinks in the armor. No tournament is complete without upsets and I think the Golden Eagles make the semifinals in a bit of a surprise.

Platteville’s size and depth of talent will win out over Elmhurst. Quentin Shields can’t take on both of the Bluejays’ sharp shooters, but he can run circles around their defense. Voelker’s inside-outside dominance will be the difference and send another WIAC school to the last quartet.

Buzz Anthony will be the best player on the floor against Wittenberg and their defense will stymie the many offensive weapons possessed by the Tigers. Josh Merkel knows how to wring the most out of every advantage and his team is ready for a Final Four showdown.

Two years ago, Oshkosh lost a three-point contest with Nebraska Wesleyan for the national title (despite hitting a record 17 threes). They’re going to have a similar battle with Colby with a similar outcome. Despite the inside advantage provided by Jack Flynn, the NESCAC gets a sixth different team to the Final Four.

In the national semifinals, Brockport’s luck runs out and Platteville advances to the title game for the first time since Bo Ryan was roaming the sidelines. And as much as I’d love a WIAC-NESCAC, East-West battle for Division III supremacy, I think Randolph-Macon’s defense proves too much for Colby’s sharpshooters and the ODAC returns to the final for the first time since 2007.

Atlanta

With two weeks to prepare, Josh Merkel’s guys come out fighting and keep the score low. Content to trade contested baskets, Platteville hangs in, perfectly content to play hard-nosed, ugly, WIAC basketball. Down the stretch, the heroics of Anthony and Shields cancel each other out, with Voelker hitting a three to put the championship out of reach in the waning seconds.

There you have it: it’s not fun, necessarily, but a fifth Wisconsin school hoists the Walnut and Bronze in just seven years.

How likely is this to come true? 100%, of course. In reality, my first year doing the preview I correctly picked Babson to win it all. I should’ve quit then, since the next year Wash U washed out on night one. Last season I had Swarthmore and Oshkosh in the Final Four, but Whitman winning it all.

Good luck to everyone and remember to enjoy some great Division III basketball wherever you find yourself!