This is our attempt to project the field of 50 based on the same criteria the NCAA national committee will be using. They give us 39 gimmes in the automatic bids and we have to figure out the 7 Pool C and 4 Pool B bids.
We have not always projected the women's field in the past because we have had a hard time figuring out what the women's committee is thinking. And Pool B has been shallow in the women's game ever since the Northwest Conference got an automatic bid. But since the AMCC and NAC, two large conferences, get automatic bids this year, that swings some bids from Pool B to Pool C.
Unfortunately, there are many games left to be played on Sunday, and many of them involve favorites that would be Pool C contenders if they lose. We have to project winners in order to do a projection of the field, however, so we have projected DePauw to win the SCAC, Dickinson to win the Centennial and Howard Payne to win the ASC. We feel those three are good Pool C candidates should the lose. In the CAC, NJAC and Empire 8, it is our opinion that only one team will go no matter which one wins the title games Sunday.
Washington and Jefferson jumped out at us as the best in Pool B, at 16-4 in-region and a 9.650 SOS index. Conference rival Westminster (Pa.) was actually an easy pick (19-6, 9.360), and Chapman had similar numbers. The last spot was actually easy to define as well, because after Maryville (Tenn.), the SOS dropoff was large.
Pool C was more difficult, of course. We set aside the first spot for the loser of the NESCAC title game between Bates and Bowdoin. Buena Vista, with one Division III loss, was second, and Albion, which picked up its third regional loss, was third.
We feel those three teams are safe. Oswego State was next, in a middle tier of Pool C teams. Some of Sunday's possible upset losers (DePauw, for example), could bump them. Most wouldn't. We rounded out our Pool C selections with Whitworth (16-3, 10.316), which was next in the field on the strength of its 4-3 record against regionally ranked opponents. Wheaton (Ill.) was next (19-3, 10.409, 1-2) and Hardin-Simmons was last (20-4, 10.292, 3-3). It will be a tough day on the bubble at Wheaton with both teams waiting around for scores to come in.
Trinity (Texas), which would be 17-5 with a 10.500 and 2-3 against regionally ranked opponents and King's (20-4, 10.708, but 0-3) would be the next two teams, along with Wesleyan (20-4, 11.167, 0-2) and McDaniel (23-4, 10.185, 1-3 with a projected loss Sunday).
Here's how we bracketed the 50 teams:
| NORTHEAST Bowdoin/Bates Southern Maine Emmanuel Salem State Maine Maritime Colby-Sawyer |
EAST Bates/Bowdoin Oswego State Empire 8 winner Springfield William Smith Brockport State |
| ATLANTIC Mount St. Mary Staten Island Mary Washington Washington and Jefferson Frostburg State NJAC winner |
MID-ATLANTIC Scranton Messiah Dickinson Alvernia Denison Chestnut Hill |
| SOUTH Randolph-Macon George Fox Chapman Howard Payne Hardin-Simmons Whitworth Cal Lutheran |
GREAT LAKES DePauw Albion Baldwin-Wallace Maryville (Tenn.) Greensboro Calvin Westminster (Pa.) |
| CENTRAL Millikin Washington U. Wheaton (Ill.) Franklin Rockford Webster |
WEST Buena Vista UW-Stout St. Benedict Simpson Ripon Edgewood |
We advocate a split between the two NESCAC teams, and since incumbent regional No. 1 Oswego State lost in the SUNYAC title game on Saturday, it makes it easier to put a Northeast team in the East bracket's top slot. The 500-mile radius beyond which the NCAA must pay to fly teams in the tournament is maintained safely in these first two brackets and the competitive balance is improved.
In the Atlantic, if Salisbury beats Mary Washington, move everyone up a slot and seed Salisbury sixth. In the Mid-Atlantic, Denison lost the coin toss and has to make the trip because they lost to Westminster (Pa.). Westminster gets to stay in its own bracket.
Things get interesting in the South. We've combined the four west coast teams and the two Texas island teams with Randolph-Macon in one bracket. Although this bracket (and actually, the entire first round) can be done without a flight, the committee should consider flying Whitworth to Howard Payne and Hardin-Simmons to George Fox. It would be one flight but would ensure that two sets of conference foes do not have to meet each other in the first round. This and the Great Lakes bracket are the seven-team brackets to accomodate the extra two teams. And in the Great Lakes, we'd have Greensboro driving to Maryville (Tenn.), under 500 miles, with the winner continuing on to DePauw, also under 500 miles. Committees have done this before, even to the point of denying a team a possible home (as we are with Greensboro here) to save the almighty buck.
After that, the last two brackets are fairly straightforward. Thanks for listening. Hopefully the Sunday games won't obliterate our hard work.