I'm supposed to open this preview by telling you how wide open the bracket is. How there's a large number of teams that have a chance to advance to the national semifinals hosted by Calvin College in Grand Rapids. But I can't do that.

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If you've been following our Top 25 poll this year, you know there's a strong consensus which teams are the best in the country. Tufts started the season ranked No. 1 and held that ranking until early February when the Jumbos lost to Amherst 36-35 (yes, that was the final). Amherst, which started the season No. 2, has held the top spot the rest of the way. Tufts' only two losses came to Amherst by a combined five points so the Jumbos are rightfully ranked close to their NESCAC rival at No. 3.

The rest of the top four hasn't moved much either. Defending national champions Thomas More started the season fourth and the Saints are fourth now. St. Thomas started the season sixth and the Tommies are second now. 

Take a closer look at the number of points each team in the Top 25 is receiving and you'll find another sign of consensus. If every voter had Amherst No. 1 on their ballot, Amherst would have 625 points (25 voters x 25 points for each top spot). The Purple and White have 621 points, or 99 percent of what it would take for a clean sweep. If every voter had St. Thomas second, then the Tommies would have 600 points. They have 591 or 99 percent. The percentages are similar for Tufts and Thomas More.

And since the top four teams are placed in four different brackets, we have four clear favorites to advance to the national semifinals. It doesn't mean those four teams will reach Grand Rapids, but it would be a big upset if any of them didn't.

As we did on the men's side, let's roll through each of the four quadrants and give you the best first-round matchup, a surprise team that could win both games on the road this weekend, a disappointment that may not live up to its seeding or ranking this weekend and a projected winner. I'll also give you my guess for which team has the best chance to beat one of the big four.

While I've done better at predicting the final four teams in recent years, the only guarantee is that I'll get some stuff very wrong. That's part of the fun so let's do it.

Amherst quadrant (top left)

Ali Doswell can score, rebound and was named first team all conference. She should not be confused with sister Meredith who can also score, rebound and was named first team all conference. File photo by Amherst College athletics

Regis (Mass.) (22-6) at No. 1 Amherst (27-0); Sage (20-8) vs No. 22 Mary Washington (23-4)

Gwynedd Mercy (18-10) at No. 25 FDU-Florham (24-3); No. 21 Messiah (25-2) vs Babson (22-5)

Westfield State (19-8) at No. 12 Montclair State (25-2); La Roche (23-4) vs Mass-Dartmouth (22-5)

Rochester Tech (19-8) at Ithaca (24-3); SUNY New Paltz (18-8) vs No. 19 Bowdoin (21-4)

Best first round matchup: Babson versus Messiah. Babson's 22-5 record is a little deceptive because two of the five losses came to two of the big four (Amherst and Tufts). Babson is also the only team other than Tufts to lose to top-ranked Amherst by single digits. The Beavers are led by NEWMAC Player of the Year Giovanna Pickering, who would also probably win a Division III basketball version of The Voice. Messiah has a more balanced attack with four players averaging 10-13 points per game. This should be a close game.

Most likely to surprise: If Babson's record is better than it looks, that's even more true of Bowdoin which has three of its four losses to Tufts and Amherst and played Tufts close twice. The Polar Bears have quietly put together a great season in the shadow of Amherst and Tufts and they are balanced to the point that their statistics look like a misprint. The top eight scorers average 5-9 points per game. I'm not sure Bowdoin winning two games this weekend would qualify as a surprise, but they are the road team with the best chance to do so.

Most likely to disappoint: Hard to find one in this bracket. Would it really be a disappointment if unranked Ithaca lost to No. 19 Bowdoin in the second round? Or if No. 21 Messiah beat No. 25 FDU-Florham? The best I can do is it'll be a major disappointment if Amherst doesn't win the bracket and a minor disappointment if the Purple and White don't win each game by double digits.

Most likely to beat Amherst:  Tufts has played Amherst dead even twice, thanks to elite defense and the exceptional athleticism of wing player Melissa Baptista. As a potential second round opponent, Mary Washington has the best chance of following that approach, but the Eagles would need a big game from Kendall Parker and an off night for Amherst to win in LeFrak Gymnasium.

Who’s going to win: Have I mentioned that Amherst is really, really good? No? Amherst is really, really good and the Purple and White will go to yet another national semifinal.

Thomas More quadrant (bottom left)

Great things come in small packages. If you have a chance to watch Thomas More guard Abby Owings play, take it. Thomas More athletics file photo

Eureka (20-7) at No. 4 Thomas More (27-0); No. 18 Hope (21-4) vs. UW-Whitewater (22- 5)

Staten Island (22-6) at No. 10 Christopher Newport (25-2); Catholic (23-4) vs. Lynchburg (22-6)

Lakeland (20-7) at No. 5 Ohio Northern (27-0); No. 15 Trine vs. Illinois Wesleyan (18-9)

Muhlenberg (20-8) at No. 20 SUNY Geneseo (26-1); Rochester (17-8) vs. Keene State (21-7)

Best first round matchup: Trine/Illinois Wesleyan is a good one, but the best is Hope/UW-Whitewater. In a lot of years this would have been a marquee matchup in the second weekend of the tournament, and the Flying Dutch did play the Warhawks in the Elite 8 back in 2013 when Whitewater reached the national championship game. This year we get the marquee matchup early because Hope lost its last two games and Whitewater got beat up a little in the WIAC. Whitewater regained its footing and won the conference tournament last week so the Warhawks have more momentum entering Friday.

Most likely to surprise: Rochester has the least impressive record of the four teams in its pod but it has also played much stiff competition than the other four teams. The Yellowjackets know what it's like to play close games against tough opponents on the road. They haven't won a lot of those games, but just getting that experience has value come tournament time. While SUNY Geneseo is a sentimental favorite because of everything the Knights have been through, Rochester should win that pod this weekend.

Most likely to disappoint: Setting SUNY Geneseo aside, the next most likely home team to lose this weekend is Ohio Northern. Whichever team the Polar Bears get in the second round is a tough draw. Illinois Wesleyan likes to push tempo and Trine has more wins against tournament participants (four) than ONU does (one -- Westfield State). If Trine beats Illinois Wesleyan on Friday night, keep an eye on the battle between OAC player of the year Britt Lauck for ONU and Trine's leading scorer Brandi Dawson.

Most likely to beat Thomas More: Christopher Newport has good size, but I'm not convinced the Captains can score enough to keep up with Thomas More. I like the low post combination that Ohio Northern (Lauck and Amy Buillimore) and Trine (Dawson and Hayley Martin) bring to the table, but I don't like anyone's chances to win on Thomas More's floor. So let's say whichever team gets through the ONU pod this weekend has the best chance to beat Thomas More in an Elite 8 matchup.

Who’s going to win: Remember Thomas More? The team that hasn't lost a game when it's at full strength since March 2013? The defending national champions? After the Saints' season got off to an unfortunate start, they have cruised along largely unnoticed. That's partly because they plow through their conference like a bulldozer through a lemonade stand and partly because their excellence has almost become easy to take for granted. But I suspect they are using all of that to their motivational advantage and we'll see that over the next two weekends.

St. Thomas quadrant (Top right)

Alexis Noren and Puget Sound have a chance to continue their dream season, if the Loggers can just survive another round with George Fox or Whitman. Puget Sound athletics photo

UW-Superior (23-4) at No. 2 St. Thomas (27-0); Chicago (18-7) vs No. 8 Wartburg (25-2)

Marymount (22-5) at Guilford (24-3); Piedmont (21-7) vs Albright (22-5)

UC Santa Cruz (14-10) at No. 9 Puget Sound (25-2); No. 23 George Fox (21-5) vs No. 16 Whitman (23-4) 

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (19-8) at Texas-Dallas (25-3); Hendrix (18-10) vs. No. 7 Trinity (Texas) (26-1)

Best matchup: From the land of small consolations, the rematch of last Wednesday's NWC conference semifinal between George Fox and Whitman should be a great game. The NCAA tournament selection committee tries to avoid rematches in the first round, particularly between conference foes, but the isolation of the three NWC schools (these two and Puget Sound) and the financial limitations of flying teams in and out of the Pacific Northwest leaves us with the third meeting between these teams in two weeks. It's not fair that the NWC teams have to play their conference tournament twice -- once for real and a second time in the NCAA playoffs. But unless someone has a solution to the financial problem other than demanding more of the Division I generated revenue that helps fund all other NCAA championships, this is our reality.

Most likely to surprise: We're giving the NWC teams a pass since those teams are so evenly matched and have played each other so often. Trinity is the favorite in its pod, despite the road status, and the four teams in North Carolina this weekend are evenly matched. So that leaves us with No. 8 Wartburg which has a chance to end St. Thomas' season again, just as they did last year in the Sweet 16. 

Most likely to disappoint: I'm going to give all the teams a pass. This quadrant could be called the series of unfortunate events because financial realities create unfortunate matchups throughout. The NWC teams shouldn't be playing each other again, but they are. Trinity, which is a higher seed than Texas-Dallas, should be hosting, but teams can drive to Texas-Dallas instead of flying to San Antonio. And even the potential St. Thomas/Wartburg rematch feels like the byproduct of not having a lot of options for pairing teams in that part of the country without flights. It's not the NCAA tournament selection committee's fault. They are doing the best they can. But it's fair for several teams to be disappointed here.

Most likely to beat St. Thomas: Wartburg because the Knights have done it once before with essentially the same roster. 

Who’s going to win: About a week ago a St. Thomas fan emailed me to take us to task for underestimating the Tommies' men's team and complaining that we frequently undersell their chances of success. The timing wasn't great since the St. Thomas men lost in the MIAC semifinals less than 48 hours later, but the point is understood. We frequently pick against St. Thomas, men and women, in these types of situations. But picking chalk is boring so I'll do it one more time. At least one of the big four is going to lose befor reaching Grand Rapids and this is the deepest quadrant in the bracket. So Puget Sound survives the NWC cage match this weekend and wins two more next weekend, wherever those games are played.

Tufts quadrant (lower right)

If Michela North and Tufts have a chance to play at home next weekend, they are the favorite to make an fourth straight trip to the national semifinals. Tufts athletics file photo

St. Joseph's (Maine) (24-4) at  No. 3 Tufts (25-2); DeSales (20-7) vs Husson (22-4)
University of New England (23-5) at No. 17 Scranton (24-3); Eastern Connecticut ( 20-8) vs SUNY Poly (25-2)
Calvin at No. 13 UW-Oshkosh (24-2); No. 11 DePauw (26-2) vs. No. 14 Gustavus Adolphus (25-2)
St. Norbert (20-5) at No. 6 Washington U. (23-2); No. 24 Wheaton (Ill.) (23-4) vs Rose-Hulman (24-3)

Best matchup: If I could only watch one first round game in the whole bracket, it would be DePauw/Gustavus. DePauw entered the Top 25 after the Tigers' win over UW-Oshkosh and rolled through the NCAC without much resistance. Gustavus entered the Top 25 after winning its first 19 games and then played St. Thomas close in the teams' only regular season meeting. The Gusties are led by a program-changing talent in Mikayla Miller and DePauw has a tradition of tournament success, including two national titles. This should be fun.

Most likely to surprise: Wheaton has lost its tournament opener the last two seasons, and in three of its last four seasons, including a lopsided defeat to River Falls last year. The Thunder have been hard to read again this year, at times alternating puzzling losses with impressive wins. But this is All-American Katie McDaniels' last chance to shine in March and the Thunder are capable of winning two games this weekend.

Most likely to disappoint: Oshkosh has the toughest pod in the bracket and enters the NCAA tournament off a loss at home to Whitewater in the WIAC tournament final. As noted above, the Titans lost to DePauw earlier this season and they may lose some of that home court advantage if some of the Oshkosh faithful follow the men's team to its first round game in Holland, Michigan. Heck, even that first round game against Calvin isn't a gimme. I think the Titans win that one, with special motivation to knock out the Knights who beat them in the second round of the 2015 tournament. But, compared to the other three hosts this weekend, I don't like Oshkosh's chances to survive the weekend.

Most likely to beat Tufts: Washington U is highly ranked and always a tough out in the tournament, but I think the answer here is Scranton. The Royals have a low-post talent in Alexix Roman that can match Tufts' All-American Michela North and another All-American in Sarah Payonk who is very versatile. Scranton lost a close game at home to the Jumbos in the Elite 8 last year. Notwithstanding that stretch this season when Scranton lost three of four games, the Royals would be well prepared for a rematch.

Who's going to win: We haven't said much about Tufts this season but the Jumbos continue to roll along with a suffocating defense, the uniquely talented Melissa Baptista and low post anchor Michela North. If Tufts gets to host next weekend -- and that might depend in part on whether the Tufts men are still playing -- I like the Jumbos to win this bracket. And if Tufts doesn't host, I'll go out on a limb and take Scranton.men are still playing -- I like the Jumbos to win this bracket. And if Tufts doesn't host, I'll go out on a limb and take Scranton.

Championship weekend

So that leaves us with a rematch of the 2016 national semifinals on one side of the bracket, with Amherst versus Thomas More, and a cross-coast battle on the other, with Puget Sound versus Tufts.

I've had Amherst and Thomas More 1 and 2 on my Top 25 ballot all year. I keep going back to how well Amherst played the Saints last season on a neutral floor, how much they frustrated Abby Owings with their length on defense, how the Purple and White almost stopped the Saints juggernaut, only they (like everyone else) had no answer for Sydney Moss. Without Moss, Amherst would've won that game and Moss is gone now. That's flawed thinking since both teams are different, but I'll carry that flawed thinking into the postseason and take Amherst over Thomas More in the first semifinal.

Tufts has an incredible knack for imposing its preferred pace on every opponent. Even when the Jumbos lose -- which isn't often -- it's in a low-scoring, grind-it-out game that favors their strengths. The Jumbos' experience gives them the edge against a team playing in its first national semifinal, like Puget Sound would be. So I'll take Tufts.

That sets up a third battle between Amherst and Tufts in the national semifinal. The brackets were intentionally set up so those teams wouldn't have to meet until the championship game and that's what we have in my mind's eye.

It won't be pretty, but it will be close. First one to 40 wins.

Final: Amherst 43, Tufts 39