| The Final Four hasn't seen
this kind of fan support in Holland. But then again, it hasn't seen
the home team playing the final weekend, either. Photo by Eric Kelley, d3photography.com |
By Gordon Mann
D3sports.com
Like the chemistry labs where some Division III athletes spend their afternoons, the NCAA Tournament is a great place to use the scientific method.
Clearing away the cobwebs from my liberal arts education, I think the scientific method works something like this:
First, you need a question of interest. Most people who monitor the Top 25 poll or NCAA regional rankings have some in mind. Something like, "What the heck were they thinking picking that team ahead of mine?"
Establish a hypothesis. That’s a statement that you believe to be true, ideally in the form of a relational statement. Something like, "Any basketball tournament preview that includes the word hypothesis is 20 percent less likely to be read."
Predict an outcome that flows from the hypothesis. Something like, "Since this guy is talking about science instead of basketball, I predict most readers have already used the search function to see if this article has anything on their favorite team."
Then we test the predictions. Unlike my classroom days, the tests are the fun part because they're the games we’ll follow the next three weeks. They will give us hard proof which teams are best.
Since we’re still a couple days away from the first game, let’s bust out the safety goggles, put on our best lab coat, and make some predictions about this year’s tournament. For each of the four brackets, we’ll highlight a theory that will get tested. We’ll also give you a first round toss-up, a potential disappointment and a Cinderella team that ideally can win two games on someone else's floor. And, in the name of scientific progress, we’ll predict who will win the bracket.
Upper left bracket
Cabrini (24-3) at Catholic (26-1); Widener (21-5) versus
FDU-Florham (24-3)
Lancaster Bible (22-4) at Messiah (23-4); William Paterson (20-7)
versus Gettysburg (21-6)
Farmingdale State (12-12) at Amherst (26-1); University of New
England 24-4) versus Bridgewater State (23-3)
St. Lawrence (19-8) at Tufts (23-3); Babson (25-2) versus New
Paltz State (24-3)
Theory: You need a deep bench to go far in
the postseason
| Who needs rest? Marcia Voigt
played 39 minutes versus Williams. Amherst athletics file photo |
For much of the season, Amherst has relied on a six- or seven-player rotation. Look through the Lord Jeffs' box scores, and you'll find several where the starters played most of the minutes and scored nearly all the points. A lot of teams shorten their bench once they reach the NCAA tournament, but Amherst can't go any shorter unless all five starters play 40 minutes per game. The Lord Jeffs will test the maxim that you need a deep bench to make a deep NCAA tournament run.
First round toss-up: Teams from the MAC Freedom often play teams from the MAC Commonwealth during the regular season, but FDU-Florham hasn't played Widener yet this year. Widener likes to shoot threes, attempting 19 per contest. FDU-Florham likes to push tempo. Put them together and you have a fun first round game.
Most likely to disappoint: Messiah has a great record, but the Falcons aren't entering the NCAA tournament on a roll. They've lost two of their last four games and dropped another one at home versus Elizabethtown (15-11). So whichever team wins the Gettysburg/William Paterson match-up on Friday has a puncher's chance against the Falcons on Saturday.
Predicted champion: Depth is overrated, at least until we get to the final four. Amherst ekes out a win over Tufts in the Sweet 16 and then wins more comfortably in the Elite 8.
Lower left bracket
St. Scholastica (13-14) at Cornell (24-1); Calvin (23-3) versus
St. Thomas (22-5)
Wheaton (Ill.) (22-5) at Hope (26-1); Ohio Northern (26-1) versus
Hanover (21-7)
Westminster (Mo.) (17-10) at Simpson (25-2); UW-Stevens Point
(23-5) versus Concordia-Moorhead (21-6)
Wisconsin Lutheran (25-2) at UW-Whitewater (21-6); Thomas More
(27-1) versus Carthage (23-4)
Theory: If team X played team Y on a neutral court, they'd win
| Would the Pointers beat the Warhawks on a neutral court? Maybe we'll find out. |
Sometimes head-to-head results don't neatly explain the Top 25. UW-Whitewater beat UW-Stevens Point twice in the regular season and won the WIAC title, so the Warhawks should be ranked higher than the Pointers, right? Then again, the Pointers just beat the Warhawks last weekend on the road, so maybe it's the other way around. In cases like these, one approach voters use to make a decision is asking themselves the question, "If X played Y on a neutral court, who’d win?" Right now the Top 25 poll indicates that UW-Stevens Point would beat UW-Whitewater on a neutral court. There’s a chance we'll get to test that theory in Michigan or Iowa, if the two WIAC teams survive the first weekend, which isn't a given.
Cinderella: Carthage hovered on the fringes of the Top 25 for most of the season while Thomas More has been a fixture in it. But Carthage matches up very well with Thomas More. And the Lady Reds won three games on the road in the NCAA tournament last year, so they have a Cinderella pedigree to go just as far this season.
Most likely to disappoint: Despite being ranked third in the country, Ohio Northern has a really tough draw. Assuming the Polar Bears beat Hanover, they have to play Hope on its home floor in the second round. The national ranking suggests Ohio Northern will play the Flying Dutch close in the second round. But Ohio Northern doesn't have a signature win in the regular season and Hope blitzed Ohio Northern's conference mates, Wilmington and Baldwin-Wallace, during the regular season.
Upper right bracket
| Montclair State should see a
raucous atmosphere at Lebanon Valley. |
La Roche (24-2) at DePauw (28-0); Maryville (Tenn.) (23-4)
versus Otterbein (21-6)
Louisiana College (24-4) at Rhodes (24-3); Washington U (20-5)
versus Texas-Dallas (20-8)
Guilford (23-5) at Christopher Newport (26-2); Marymount (23-4)
versus Eastern Mennonite (21-6)
Baruch (26-2) at Lebanon Valley (23-4); Montclair State (27-0)
versus Regis (Mass.) (23-4)
Theory: A highly ranked, undefeated team is always the
favorite
Two teams in this bracket fit that profile, including No. 1
DePauw. No. 5 Montclair State can't host because of the tiff
between the State of New Jersey and the NCAA over gambling, but the
Redhawks should still be the favorite at No. 20 Lebanon Valley,
especially given the comparative results involving Widener. Or are
they? Montclair doesn't have a win against a team in the
current Top 25. The NJAC women had a down year relative to previous
seasons and LVC Gymnasium will likely be louder than anywhere the
young Redhawks have played this season.
First round toss-up: Marymount's stingy defense allows just 47 points per game. Eastern Mennonite averages 70 points per game and has scored 80-plus a couple times. Throw in the neutral court and this one could go either way.
Cinderella:
None. Several teams could win two games on the road, but they
aren't true underdogs. Washington U is the only ranked team in its
pod this weekend. Montclair State is only on the road because of
extenuating circumstances. The pod at Christopher Newport has four
evenly matched teams. So that leaves the DePauw pod and the Tigers
aren't losing this weekend, although…
Most likely to
disappoint: DePauw has been the No. 1 team in the country
since the regular season started. The Tigers' victories against
Washington U, Babson and Messiah validate that ranking, and any
season that finishes with one loss isn't a major disappointment.
DePauw needs to at least reach the third weekend to avoid this
label.
Predicted champion: Picking chalk is no fun so let's say Washington U. puts together two stellar weeks, avenges its narrow loss to DePauw and goes to the Final Four. Coach Hoffman and the Tiger fans can thank me later for the bulletin board material.
Lower right bracket
| Kristina Williams and the Pioneers have a shot to advance deep into the tourney. |
Emmanuel (23-5) at Rochester (19-6); Williams (22-5) versus
Scranton (19-8)
Smith (22-4) at Southern Maine (26-1); Ithaca (25-2) versus
Colby-Sawyer (23-5)
Trinity (Texas) (23-4) at Lewis and Clark (24-3); Cal Lutheran
(23-4) versus Whitman (20-5)
Whitworth (21-6) at Emory (22-3); Ferrum (24-4) versus Huntingdon
(18-9)
Theory: The NWC, beyond George Fox, is one of the best in the country.
George Fox has been a national champion, a title contender and the road block that prevents other NWC teams, like Lewis and Clark, from advancing through the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Now that road block is gone. This is a chance for the Pioneers, Whitworth or Whitman to show that this conference – and not just George Fox -- is one of the best in the country.
First round toss-up: Emory should be favored when it hosts Whitworth. The Eagles won one of the toughest conferences in the country and the Pirates have to travel a long way to open the NCAA tournament. But something tells me that the Pirates will make this one close.
Cinderella: Two Ws could get two Ws on the road this weekend. Williams' victory over Amherst shows the Ephs can beat elite teams. The Ephs have extra motivation since their 2011 NCAA tournament appearance ended in a heart-breaking loss to Muhlenberg at Rochester. Whitman wouldn't be the favorite in a second round match up with Lewis and Clark, but the Missionaries beat the Pioneers earlier this season and will have more than a prayer in a rematch.
Most likely to disappoint: Rochester doesn't make many early tournament exits, but the Yellowjackets have some puzzling losses and a loss to Scranton, which is in this pod.
Predicted champion: If Southern Maine advances past Saturday, the Huskies probably host next weekend. They have the best overall record of all teams in this bracket. If Rochester advances, it is within driving distance of Scranton as defined by the NCAA (498 miles). And if Rochester loses, the other three teams in Rochester's pod are even closer to Maine. The southern and west coast teams should start looking at flights to Portland. When they get there, they’ll find cold weather, a loud gym and a tough opponent. So Southern Maine is the favorite.
Final Four prediction
Amherst has struggled at the DeVos Fieldhouse and playing the team that owns the building won't help. Hope beats Amherst in one semifinal. The second is a rematch of the 2000 national championship game between Washington U. and Southern Maine. This time the Huskies prevail, setting up a rematch of the 2006 national championship game. The Huskies' magic runs out, Hope defeats Southern Maine again and the Flying Dutch hoist the Walnut and Bronze on their own floor.