Thomas More didn't live up to its No. 1 ranking in the 2011 NCAA tournament, but the Saints didn't have Sydney Moss then either. Thomas More athletics file photo

By Gordon Mann, Deputy Managing Editor

This week Thomas More moved into the top spot in our Top 25 poll.

My condolences to the Saints’ players, coaches and fans.

Sure, it’s nice to be recognized for success, especially the kind of dominance that Thomas More has displayed so far. But the voters in the Top 25 poll (myself included) don’t have a good track record for picking the eventual national champion through our weekly ballots. Only one team has entered the NCAA tournament with our No. 1 ranking and left the tournament with that honor by winning the national championship. DePauw did it last year when the Tigers were ranked No. 1 from the first regular season poll all the way through their undefeated title run.

In the last ten years, every other top-ranked team failed to win the national championship. Besides DePauw, only one reached the national title game, Southern Maine in 2006. Each of the last seven years there has been an undefeated team at the top of our poll entering the NCAA tournament. Aside from DePauw, only two of those teams even reached the final weekend (Amherst twice). Some of that is the result of unfortunate bracketing, like when Hope played Howard Payne in the de facto national title game in 2008. Being No. 1 also isn’t a guarantee that you’ll get to host throughout the NCAA tournament.

This isn’t new territory for Thomas More. The Saints were ranked No. 1 entering the 2011 tournament. After winning the first two rounds, they were beaten soundly by Washington U. on their home floor in the Sweet 16. That Thomas More team entered the NCAA tournament with a 28-0 record, same as this team. So history is not on Thomas More’s side.

Fortunately for them, the most dominant player in Division III women’s basketball is.

In case you haven’t heard, last summer Sydney Moss transferred to Thomas More from the University of Florida (yes, the one with the No. 1 Division I men’s basketball team) where she made the SEC’s All-Freshman team. There are countless cases where a Division I player transfers to a Division III school and inspires heady, and ultimately unfulfilled, expectations of automatic dominance. In Moss’ case, the expectations have been fulfilled promptly, thoroughly and repeatedly.

Just scroll through the news releases that Thomas More thankfully posts on our site regularly. “Moss sets single season scoring record…Moss crosses 1,000^th point plateau (as a sophomore)…Moss ties school record with 40 points in one game…Moss breaks D-III single-game scoring record…Moss reduces opponents to quivering mass of defensive futility…Okay, I made that last one up.

And Thomas More is more than a one-woman show. Jenny Burgoyne averages 16.7 points per game, even with Moss scoring close to 30 per contest. Katie Kitchen and Sydni Wainscott are shooting above 40 percent from three. Devin Beasley is averaging 8.6 assists per game.

So maybe the Saints can buck the trend, win a title and guarantee no opponent’s fan section will bust out the “over-rated” chant during the NCAA tournament.

With the usual warning that our predictions are guaranteed to displease, here is a preview of our Field of 64. As usual, we’ll highlight one first round game that’s a toss-up, a road team that can win two games in the first weekend, the home team who’s the biggest risk not to survive the first weekend and a predicted bracket winner.

Upper Left Bracket

Montclair State's Melissa Tobie is the 2014 NJAC Player of the Year. Montclair State athletics file photo

Regis (Mass.) (23-4) at Montclair State (25-2); Cabrini (23-4) vs. Moravian (20-7)
Bridgewater State (16-11) at Scranton (24-3); Vassar (22-5) vs. Williams (20-5)
La Roche (23-4) at York (Pa.) (25-2); Lebanon Valley (21-6) vs. Baldwin Wallace (20-6)
Wells (19-8) at FDU-Florham (27-0); Randolph-Macon (23-5) vs. Messiah (20-7)

First round toss-up: All four of Friday’s neutral court games are intriguing. The CSAC champion hasn’t won a game in the NCAA tournament since 2006 and Cabrini has been one-and-done three times. But the Cavaliers gained valuable tournament experience last year, beat Landmark Conference winner Scranton earlier this year and have length at most positions, making it tough for opposing offenses. Moravian lost its top player, Alexis Wright, early in the season and has adapted to that problem as best as possible with senior Katie O’Rourke leading the way.

Possible Cinderella: The OAC is a tough conference to figure this year. Three teams impressed the NCAA regional ranking committee and earned at-large bids, but none posted a high enough winning percentage to climb high in the Top 25. Despite being picked first in the OAC preseason coaches’ poll and sharing the OAC regular season title, Baldwin Wallace only appeared on one Top 25 ballot this week. After battling through the OAC, the Yellow Jackets won’t be intimidated by two tough games in Central Pennsylvania this weekend. York (Pa.) is still the pick to advance out of that pod but, if Baldwin Wallace advances, that qualifies as a Cinderella story.

Possible disappointment: FDU-Florham rolled through the Freedom Conference without much resistance. Because of the Devils’ depth and athleticism, they rarely trailed at the half and won every regular season game by double-digits. But FDU-Florham hasn’t been tested in a close game since they lost to Widener in the first round of last year’s NCAA tournament. If whoever wins the Messiah/Randolph-Macon game can find a way to slow FDU-Florham down and keep the game close, they have a shot to pull off the upset.

Prediction: This is a well balanced bracket with four very solid host teams and four well-balanced neutral court games. The winner could come down to whether next weekend’s games are in New Jersey or Pennsylvania. Montclair State was placed ahead of York and FDU-Florham was in front of Scranton in the last public regional rankings. Assuming nothing changed in the final regional rankings, Montclair is the pick to advance west to Wisconsin.

Tufts versus Bowdoin is one of several possible rematches in this bracket. Bowdoin athletics file photo

Lower Left Bracket

St. Joseph’s (Maine) (23-5) at Tufts (26-1); University of New England (26-2) vs. NYU (20-5)
Castleton (25-3) at Bowdoin (21-5); Plattsburgh State (22-5) vs. Roger Williams (22-6)
Sage (17-9) at Ithaca (23-4); Haverford (23-3) vs. Rhode Island College (20-8)
Baruch (21-7) at Hartwick (21-5); Amherst (24-3) vs. Springfield (17-11)

First round toss up: The matchup between the University of New England and New York University doesn’t look like a close one if you just consider the NCAA tournament performance of their conference members The University of New England comes from the CCC, which is 2-11 in the last 10 NCAA tournaments. The Violets come the UAA, which is an astounding 69-22 in the tournament over that same period. But NYU enters the tournament with losses in three of its last five games and the University of New England was 4-2 against NCAA tournament participants. The Nor’easters only lost at Bowdoin by five earlier this year, so they can hang with NYU.

Possible Cinderella: None really. Amherst will win two games on the road this weekend, but the Lord Jeffs are only a road team because of miscommunication between the men’s and women’s NCAA tournament selection committees over how many tournament games the Amherst men would host.

Possible disappointment: It’s hard to see Tufts, Bowdoin or Ithaca losing this weekend given their experience winning NCAA tournament games. If you believe in the transitive property -- Roger Williams beat the University of New England once and the University of New England played Bowdoin close – then Bowdoin is the best case for a home favorite to get bounced this weekend.

Prediction: The bracket lines up nicely for Tufts. They will likely host next weekend, play Bowdoin whom they beat by 37 a couple weeks ago and then play Amherst whom they’ve beaten twice. It’s the Jumbo’s turn to reach the Final Four.

Upper Right Bracket

DePauw is ready for another run at a national championship, but they have a tougher road than last year. DePauw athletics file photo

St. Mary’s (Minn.) (24-3) at UW-Oshkosh (24-3); Washington U. (23-2) vs. Northwestern (20-7)
Loras (19-8) at St. Thomas (24-4); UW-Whitewater (24-4) vs. Concordia-Moorhead (21-5)
St. Norbert (21-4) at Carthage (24-3); Hope (27-0) vs. Wisconsin Lutheran (24-3)
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (24-3) at DePauw (27-1); Ohio Northern (24-3) vs. Transylvania (25-2)

First round toss-up: The two matchups between MIAC and WIAC teams provide the most interesting first round matchups in this bracket. UW-Whitewater is the favorite, with the conference championship and NCAA tournament success on its resume. But the Warhawks have struggled against teams with front court depth and the Cobbers definitely have that with Alexandra Lippert (6-foot-4), Erin Januschka (6-foot-1) and Kelsey Walloch (6-foot-1). UW-Oshkosh has the home court advantage, but a three-pointer explosion from Darcey Rice and St. Mary’s (Minn.) could negate that.

Possible Cinderella: Every pod has at least one team capable of winning two games on the road this weekend, including Ohio Northern whose two centers, Cenzie Yoder and Jordan Kimes, are a dynamic duo. The home teams in this bracket are real good, but at least two road teams should get through the weekend.

Possible disappointment: Hope and Carthage would’ve been a great Sweet 16 or Elite 8 battle. Instead one of them will be done on Saturday night, and that’s disappointing. It will be especially disappointing if Hope gets bumped after going 27-0 in the regular season and not getting any home games. And that’s a possibility because Carthage, like Hope, has the pieces in place for a deep tournament run.

Prediction: This is the best bracket of the bunch. You could make a real good case for at least six teams to advance but DePauw emerges from a Final Four worthy sectional weekend in Indiana.

Lower Right Bracket

If Whitman gets past another NWC foe on Saturday night, the Missionairies will be headed east next weekend. Whitman athletics file photo

Spalding (16-10) at Rhodes (24-3); Texas-Tyler (25-3) vs. Maryville (22-6)
Salem (21-4) at Thomas More (28-0); John Carroll (21-4) vs. Texas Lutheran (23-5)
Capital (19-8) at Ferrum (26-2); Christopher Newport (22-5) vs. Eastern Mennonite (22-5)Chapman (21-6) at Whitman (26-1); George Fox (22-4) vs. Whitworth (20-7)

First round toss-up: Texas-Tyler is favored in its matchup against Maryville, considering the Patriots’ national ranking, conference title and 12 game winning streak. But since Howard Payne’s undefeated run to the national championship in 2008, ASC teams are 2-9 in the NCAA tournament. Texas-Tyler’s 25-3 record is impressive, but the conference is so large that the Patriots only played three non-conference games and they lost the only one against an NCAA tournament caliber opponent, Rhodes. Add in the long road trip for Texas-Tyler and Maryville’s NCAA tournament experience and this has the makings of a close finish.

Possible Cinderella: For Whitworth to advance to the second weekend, the Pirates basically have to duplicate last week’s run through the NWC tournament, with the small bonus of playing George Fox on a neutral court instead of in Newberg. There’s no chance the Bruins or Whitman will overlook Whitworth, but the Pirates have a puncher’s chance.

Possible disappointment: Maybe Whitman, like other NWC teams, has resigned itself to not having much of a chance to host the second weekend of the tournament. The Missionairies probably would've lost out to Thomas More for hosting duties, even if they finished the regular season undefeated. The selection committee usually picks sectional hosts within driving distance of other teams, defined as 500 miles. Given the concentration of South region teams in this bracket, the staff at Thomas More shouldn’t make any plans for next weekend.

Prediction: Whichever NWC team advances through this weekend will give Thomas More its stiffest test of the season. But this is Thomas More’s time to advance to the Final Four.

Final Four

Is there such a thing as a "good loss?" If so, maybe DePauw had one when it stumbled against Ohio Wesleyan in the regular season finale. Maybe the Tigers needed that to refocus before entering post-season play. This is, after all, the same team that controlled its matchups with Washington U and Ithaca earlier this year. DePauw doesn’t have the same air of invincibility as last year, when they rolled through the tournament field, but maybe that’s for the best, too. Maybe that gives them an extra edge, and they’ll need it with a very difficult road to a repeat title.

That’s been my theory for keeping DePauw as the No. 1 team on my Top 25 ballot, despite the loss and the impressive way Thomas More, Hope and FDU-Florham rolled through their season. And I’ll stick with DePauw to find a way against Thomas More in the national semifinal and then beat Tufts for their third national championship.