KEENE, N.H. -- It might not be too late for the Warriors to qualify for the Little East tournament, but, with three games remaining, there remains little – if any – wiggle room.
Since losing four of its first five LEC games, Eastern is 3-5 against conference opponents. On the outside looking in with three LEC regular-season games remaining beginning Saturday, Eastern may have to run the table the rest of the way to have a better-than-even chance of qualifying.
The Warriors (13-9, 4-9 LEC) enter their stretch run coming off Wednesday evening's near-upset (70-68 loss) of unbeaten conference leader and nationally-ranked Keene State College (19-3, 13-0 LEC) – their third loss in the last four games. Against Keene, the Warriors rebounded from a 38-point home loss to the Owls a month ago, and led by a point with seven minutes left. A three-pointer pulled Eastern to within a point with a minute left and the Warriors had a chance to take the lead on their final possession after a Keene missed three-pointer but turned the ball over.
Eastern got balanced scoring and rebounding against Keene. Junior guard Dominick Dao (Terryville) had 18 points and six rebounds before fouling out, with sophomore guard Esco Greene (New Britain) adding 17 points and seven rebounds, sophomore forward Julian Sanchez (Willimantic) 16 points and ten rebounds and sophomore guard Elijah Jean-Guillaume (New Haven) 11 points (nine coming on three-pointers) and five rebounds. Senior forward Sheriff Bilewu (Waterbury) grabbed nine rebounds to help the Warriors to a +12 advantage on the boards and added five assists.
Eastern played the game without two starters.
Heading into the final eight days of the regular season beginning Saturday, only Keene State (13-0), Western Connecticut State University (11-3) and Rhode Island College (9-5) are (unofficially), assured of a spot in the six-team LEC playoffs, which get underway with first-round games a week from Tuesday, Feb. 25.
The top two seeds gain first-round byes into the semifinals Feb. 27 while the No. 3 seed hosts No. 6 and No. 4 hosts No. 5 in first-round games. The final is scheduled for Saturday, March 1 at the site of the highest remaining seed. The winner is automatically included in the NCAA tournament.
In 22 years under head coach Bill Geitner, Eastern won or shared six straight LEC regular-season titles between 2014 and 2019 and went on to capture consecutive tournament championships in that dominant stretch.
Despite more than already doubling last year's overall win total (and winning all nine of their non-conference games) this year, the Warriors are in danger of failing to qualify for the tournament for the second straight year and for the third time in the six seasons.
Eastern enters the stretch drive sharing seventh place in the conference with Plymouth State University, both teams a game behind the University of Southern Maine for the sixth and final playoff spot. The Panthers rallied from 19 points down at halftime to tip homestanding VTSU Castleton, 71-67, Wednesday evening at Glenbrook Gymnasium, and move into a tie with Eastern.
Eastern closes out the regular season hosting VTSU Castleton Saturday and Rhode Island College Wednesday and visiting Plymouth State University on the final day of the regular season a week from Saturday. If Eastern repeats its earlier wins over Plymouth State (+62-54) at home and VTSU Castleton (75-65) on the road, and repeats its earlier loss to Rhode Island College (75-61) on the road, it will finish with an LEC record of 6-10 that will likely not be good enough to gain one of the six tournament seeds.
If tied in the final standings come Feb. 22, Eastern holds the tie-breaker over UMass Dartmouth due to sweeping the Corsairs in the regular season (twice by two points) but concedes the tie-breaker to UMass Boston and Southern Maine after being swept by each of them. Wins over VTSU Castleton and Plymouth State in their remaining games would, however, give the Warriors the tie-breaker over those two opponents.
Beyond the top three teams in the standings, if UMass Boston wins its final two games against lower-ranked teams Plymouth State and VTSU Castleton, the Beacons would finish 8-8 and could finish in sole possession of fourth place, leaving the remaining five teams in the hunt for the two remaining tournament spots.
At season's end, Southern Maine would conclude 7-9 by downing lower-seeded VTSU Castleton and Plymouth State and losing to UMass Dartmouth for the second time this year; and UMass Dartmouth would also conclude 7-9 if it is swept in the season series with losses to Keene State and Western Connecticut and completes the season sweep of Southern Maine with a second victory (UMass Dartmouth's margin of victory over visiting Southern Maine in mid-January was just two points).
For Eastern, losses in two of its last three games would all but eliminate it from tournament contention. The Warriors sweeping their final three games could result in a three-way tie for fifth place, at 7-9.
Heading into Saturday's home game against VTSU Castleton, Dao is the only players to start every game, with 6-foot-7 inch junior Jalen Hamblin (West Hartford) and junior point guard Michael Carothers (Queens, NY) missing a third of the season this year due to injury.
Through last weekend, Dao and Hamblin shared the team scoring lead at 14.5, with Sanchez close behind at 13.4 Sanchez (8.3), Hamblin (6.1) and Dao (4.7) have been the top rebounders with Dao and Greene ranked 1-2 in assists and Dao and Similien 1-2 in steals. A parttime starter, Bilewu, the team's only senior, averages 4.6 rebounds and more than a blocked shot a game in an average of roughly 20 minutes a game.
If it qualifies for the LEC tournament, Eastern is all but assured of a first-round game on the road. Since opening the season with six straight wins away from Geissler Gymnasium, the Warriors are 2-5 away from Geissler, its road wins in that stretch coming against UMass Dartmouth Jan. 4 and VTSU Castleton 12 days later.
The Warriors are 7-9 since winning their first six games. Since that opening win streak, Eastern has won as many as three straight once but has not lost more than two in a row. It enters the home stretch with a 2-5 record in its last seven.
Eastern improved to 11-2 in the all-time series with VTSU Castleton with its 75-65 victory over the Spartans Jan. 16 at Glenbrook Gym. Sanchez (21 points/11 rebounds) keyed the win – scoring 15 points with eight rebounds in the first half -- with Greene adding 15 points and three steals and Dao 13 points, five assists and four rebounds, Jean-Guillaume coming off the bench for 12 points and five rebounds in 17 minutes. The Warriors trailed only once in the game (by two points), took a comfortable 18-point lead into the break, and pushed it to 20 points a minute into the second half.