Kyle Myrick, who reached 1,500 points in two seasons, drives the prolific Lincoln offense. Lincoln athletics photo by Bill Rudick

By Pat Coleman
Executive editor, D3sports.com

Twenty-win teams getting in is a lot better than 23-5 teams staying home. As much as the brackets are unbalanced, we have to keep in mind that the serious national champion contenders are all in this field. As we get started with Thursday's five first-round games, enjoy the excitement. Having 11 more teams in means there's 11 more games to eliminate them, and that's always got the chance to be a thriller.

Just as a reminder, these are our seedings. The NCAA seeds the brackets and does not release them, to avoid questions about hosting decisions. We use the NCAA's published criteria to seed these teams ourselves, and they may not match traditional 2/15, 3/14, 7/10, 8/9 seeds because of geography, convenience, or desire to avoid conference rematches in the first round.

Here's our picks for the surprises, disappointments and dark horses in the 2006 Division III men's basketball tournament:

Midwest Regional
No. 9 North Central (22-5) at No. 7 St. Thomas (22-5), winner to No. 1 Lawrence (24-0)
At UW-Whitewater: No. 4 UW-Whitewater (22-5) vs. No. 14 DePauw (15-12), No. 5 Carroll (21-4) vs. No. 10 Illinois Wesleyan (20-6)
No. 12 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (19-6) at No. 11 Occidental (19-6), winner to No. 3 Puget Sound (21-4)
At Augustana, No. 2 Augustana (21-5) vs. No. 13 Buena Vista (15-13), No. 6 UW-Stout (21-6) vs. No. 8 Carleton (21-6)

When Illinois Wesleyan is a 10 seed, you know this is a good bracket. Illinois Wesleyan, North Central, Lawrence, Carroll, Augustana, UW-Stout or Puget Sound could come out of this bracket and nobody would think it odd.

Lawrence is the No. 1 team in Division III and the last remaining unbeaten team, but circumstances are not in their favor. If they're only selling 1,100 seats for their second-round home game then they are not likely to be permitted to host a sectional, and will be sent somewhere like UW-Whitewater or Illinois Wesleyan. And that's if Lawrence survives a tough second-round matchup, which could be against the team that won the automatic bid from the best league in D-III this season.

Cinderella story: Illinois Wesleyan? North Central? Usually the profile of a Cinderella is not a team from the No. 1 conference. That's the way the tournament is seeded, however. If you prefer a traditional Cinderella, however, ride the hot hand of Buena Vista. Augustana is not 100% healthy and has struggled, losing four out of five. Buena Vista is on a roll after figuring things out.

Most likely to disappoint: Lawrence would have to have a great tournament run to live up to the expectations heaped on it.

Who will win? Two weeks before practice started, UW-Whitewater coach Pat Miller wasn't sure what kind of team he'd have this season. Two weeks before the Final Four, I think he has a Final Four team. Lots of teams are going to have a lot to say about it before we get there, but I think Whitewater makes it 3-for-3 this season in getting a team to Salem, joining their national champion volleyball team and D-III runner-up football squad.

Mid-Atlantic Regional
No. 11 SUNY-Farmingdale (22-5) at No. 6 Ursinus (21-6), winner to No. 1 Virginia Wesleyan (25-3)
At Lincoln: No. 4 Lincoln (24-4) vs. No. 14 Christopher Newport (20-7), No. 5 Alvernia (23-4) vs. No. 12 Messiah (18-9)
At Baruch: No. 3 Baruch (23-5) vs. No. 13 Villa Julie (19-8). No. 8 Scranton (21-8) vs. No. 9 William Paterson (20-7)
At York (Pa.): No. 2 York, Pa. (24-3) vs. No. 15 York, N.Y. (15-13), No. 7 Catholic (21-6) vs. No. 10 Widener (21-5)

Better than last year's group, this year's bracket has three legitimate contenders, it seems. Virginia Wesleyan has won 23 consecutive games and has not lost since November. York is still a threat to get back to Salem, and even though their gym is culture shock for unfamiliar opponents, remember they won a sectional on the road last season. Lincoln has played games on back-to-back nights more than anyone in Division III, which bodes well considering the tournament format. Then again, they're 7-3 on the second night, 16-1 in any other situation.

Cinderella story: Messiah is sitting in a decent position, with a winnable first-round game against Alvernia and a chance to catch Lincoln on a bad night. But Messiah is just 2-5 against tournament teams. Better pick is Villa Julie. Even better pick is Widener, which is just like Villa Julie but with a better schedule and a better big man. Go there.

Most likely to disappoint: Baruch, at least seedingwise.

Who will win? Whoever wins the Lincoln/Virginia Wesleyan game. I'm taking a hunch on Lincoln.

Northeast Regional
No. 13 Plattsburgh State (18-10) at No. 8 Hamilton (22-4), winner to No. 1 Amherst (25-2)
At Cortland State, No. 4 Cortland State (23-4) vs. No. 12 Mass-Boston (18-10), No. 5 Tufts (21-6) vs. No. 9 Endicott (19-9)
At Worcester Polytech, No. 3 Worcester Polytech (22-3) vs. No. 14 Bridgewater State (17-9), No. 6 Gordon (23-4) vs. No. 11 Utica (21-6)
No. 10 Elms (21-6) at No. 7 Norwich (20-7), winner at No. 2 St. John Fisher (24-3)

If Amherst wants to get back to the Final Four, this is the year. There's very little competition for them in this bracket.

Cinderella story: Plattsburgh can definitely win one game, but probably not two, even on a good day. Not sure any of the bottom seeds can win two games.

Most likely to disappoint: St. John Fisher. The Cardinals have lost to the ranked teams (Baldwin-Wallace and virtual No. 26 Randolph-Macon) and beaten the unranked teams. Doesn't bode well.

Who will win? Amherst, over Worcester Polytech.

South Regional
At Mississippi College: No. 1 Mississippi College (27-1) vs. No. 15 Maryville, Mo. (18-8), No. 6 Trinity, Texas (20-6) vs. No. 14 Maryville, Tenn. (20-7)
At Transylvania: No. 4 Transylvania (24-4) vs. No. 13 Bethany (23-4), No. 5 Wooster (25-3) vs. No. 10 Randolph-Macon (22-6)
At Hope: No. 2 Hope (26-2) vs. No. 16 Wisconsin Lutheran (14-14), No. 9 Calvin (22-6) vs. No. 12 UW-La Crosse (20-7)
At Wittenberg: No. 3 Wittenberg (25-3) vs. No. 12 Lake Erie (21-6), No. 7 Carnegie Mellon (20-5) vs. No. 8 Baldwin-Wallace (24-4)

Would the committee give a sectional to Mississippi College? That's a question they may face on Sunday if the Choctaws advance. It would be a flight for any possible advancing team. MC fans should hope for a sectional that includes Randolph-Macon, UW-La Crosse and Wittenberg. Only Randolph-Macon and Wittenberg could drive to each other. This bracket also has the best No. 8 seed — and the only No. 16 seed. Every other bracket got a bye.

Cinderella story: We don't really know what to make of UW-La Crosse. At 20-7 and 10-6 in the WIAC we know they must be pretty good, and the Eagles were 4-4 against NCAA Tournament teams this season. But they were 7-18 a year ago so suffice it to say this is a new experience. One win is possible but a second would make them the first visitor to beat Hope in their new building. More likely to take 13th-seeded Bethany, and hope the Drahos brothers play the games of their lives in their second trip to the big stage.

Most likely to disappoint: Wittenberg. Either potential second-round opponent could win that game, and Baldwin-Wallace might be favored, even on the road, in some people's minds.

Who will win? I feel like this is Hope's bracket to lose.

Final Four
UW-Whitewater vs. Lincoln, Hope vs. Amherst, with the consensus top two regions all season set on opposite ends of the bracket. Those two brackets' representatives advance, and Hope defeats UW-Whitewater in the title game.

And so, finally, Hope fans, there's your banner.