Can anyone stop UAA Player of the Year Natalie Bruns and the ultra-talented NYU Violets? Photo by Vincent Dusovic, NYU Athletics

By Gordon Mann
D3hoops.com

Is a New York University national championship inevitable this season?

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There’s a difference between a Tournament having a favorite and a Tournament having one team that is so impressive that you find yourself saying, “I don’t see how anyone can beat them.” And you don’t just say that when you’re watching a team’s dazzling performance midgame and get caught up in the moment. You say that on a Monday afternoon when you’re looking at box scores, and one team’s championship run feels as undeniable as the sunrise.

The last time a team’s title run felt inevitable to me was 2018 when Thomas More ran through the regular season undefeated. The Saints won the title that year and beat every team but one by double digits along the way (Trine lost by eight).

The first sign that the 2023-24 NYU Violets might be in a class by themselves came in the offseason when news broke that 2023 Player of the Year Morgan Morrison, who led Smith to the Final Four last season, would play for the Violets while attending grad school. Then we learned that Babson All-American guard Megan Bauman would also suit up for the Violets, joining NYU’s own All-American Natalie Bruns and former national rookie of the Year Belle Pellecchia. It was suddenly feasible that NYU might have four All-Americans in its starting lineup, plus a very talented supporting cast.

Even so, NYU didn't start the season ranked No. 1. That honor went to defending national champions Transylvania who returned much of its lineup from its undefeated 2023 title run that included a convincing win over NYU in the Elite 8.

But, once the season started, a growing number of Top 25 voters decided that NYU was really the top team in the country. In the first poll of the regular season, the Violets leap-frogged Transylvania for the top spot with 14 of 25 possible No. 1 votes. Then the Violets had 17 of 25. Then 20. Now it’s 22 votes.

For the coaching staff and players at NYU, suggesting an inevitable national title might be unwelcome or at least off-base. The Violets aren’t taking anything for granted. They’ve worked hard to convert the talented roster into a 25-0 top-seed.

And maybe their championship run is not inevitable.

The defending national champions have done nothing to suggest they can’t go back-to-back. Transylvania enters the Tournament with a winning streak that can now be measured in years, in addition to games. The Pioneers have top-level talent in Dasia Thornton and Kennedi Stacy, a well-rounded roster, and an outstanding head coach in Juli Fulks.

There are a handful of other teams for whom you could make a convincing case that they have a good chance to win the 2024 national championship. Christopher Newport has three games over the last three seasons. UW-Whitewater starts two All-Americans in Aleah Grundahl and Kacie Carollo. Gustavus Adolphus, Bowdoin and Wartburg are each 25-2 and seem to be peaking at the right time.

Plus, someone could be this year’s version of the 2023 Rhode Island College team that seemingly came out of nowhere and reached the Final Four.

Heck, this year’s Rhode Island College could be that team, except the Anchorwomen are already in that top tier of national title contenders. Jenna Cosgrove’s squad is deeper and stronger than tit was a year ago and, like NYU and Transylvania, the Anchorwomen are undefeated. Put them on the short list of teams who could make my inevitability question seem silly a couple weeks from now.

Whatever happens over the next couple weeks, this much is inevitable – this should be a great tournament and we look forward to watching it unfold over the next couple weeks.

As is tradition for our Tournament previews, I’ll look at each quadrant in the bracket and pick the best first-round matchup; a surprise team that could win both games on the road this weekend; a disappointment that may not live up to its seeding or ranking this weekend; and the quadrant winner.

As usual, the only guarantee for these picks is that some will be very wrong. That’s part of the fun.

New York University (Upper Left)

Belle Pellecchia is the UAA Player of the Year and one of four Violets named first team all conference. Photo by Vincent Dusovic, NYU athletics

No. 1 New York University (25-0) vs. Millsaps (24-4); Southern Virginia (22-6) at No. 15 DeSales (25-2)
Occidental (20-5) at No. 10 Hardin Simmons (24-3); Mary Hardin-Baylor (21-6) vs. Trinity (Texas) (22-5)
Framingham State (24-2) at No. 6 Scranton (25-2); Marymount (22-5) vs. Ohio Northern (18-9)
Mount St. Vincent (22-6) at No. 4 Christopher Newport (26-1); No. 17 Johns Hopkins (24-3) vs. Marietta (21-6)

Best first round matchup: The 2023-24 season comes for circle when ASC runners-up Mary Hardin-Baylor play perennial SCAC champions Trinity (Texas) in Friday night's first round game at Hardin-Simmons The Crusaders and Tigers opened the season against each other, and Trinity won 84-74 behind 27 points from Natalie Anderson and 15 points from Jamie Ruede. A lot has changed since then. Anderson was unfortunately lost to injury before the holidays and Mary Hardin-Baylor has lost four of its last six games. The Tigers found their footing in conference play, thanks in part to Reude who was named the SCAC first-year player of the year. The Cru will always have a puncher’s chance with All-American guard Arieona Rosborough. And whomever wins this game will likely get another chance at No. 10 Hardin-Simmons, which beat both teams during the regular season.

Most likely to surprise: No. 17 Johns Hopkins plays tough-as-nails defense, allowing just 50.9 points per game. The Blue Jays are also incredibly efficient, turning the ball over less than 12 times per game, third best out of 422 teams. And Johns Hopkins’ players and coach Rodney Rogan have NCAA Tournament experience, with Rogan leading Rhodes to the NCAA Tournament before coming to Baltimore. That gives the Blue Jays a decent chance to win two games at Christopher Newport this weekend. I think CNU will win its pod yet again. The Captains are basically automatic in the first two rounds (and pretty much everywhere else). But, of all the road teams in this bracket not named NYU, I like JHU’s chances the best to win two games.

Most likely to disappoint: Similar to the CNU pick above, I expect Scranton to win both games at the Long Center this weekend. But two injury-related items make Scranton a little less of a sure thing. Ohio Northern, which was picked No. 10 in the preseason, has talented post Kristen Luersman back from injury to play alongside All-American guard Brynn Serbin. Meanwhile, Scranton All-American Kaci Kranson did not play in the Landmark semifinals and only played 12 minutes in the finals. To be fair, the Lady Royals didn’t need her more than that in either game – other players led Scranton to victory over Elizabethtown and Catholic. But Scranton will need Kranson to make a deep tournament run.

And the winner is: New York University is in the odd position of being the top-ranked team in the country and on the road in the first round. It’s not unprecedented. The 2022 Christopher Newport women were undefeated, ranked No. 1, and didn’t get to host either weekend of that Tournament. While that Captains squad fell short of the Final Four, I expect the Violets will advance through this bracket to national semifinals.

Transylvania Quadrant (Lower Left)

HCAC Player of the Year Dasia Thornton is shooting 58 percent from the field this season. Photo by Transylvania athletics

Chatham (24-3) at No. 2 Transylvania (27-0); Emory (19-6) vs. Ohio Wesleyan (22-6)
Puget Sound (19-8) at No. 13 Carroll (23-4); Washington U. (17-8) vs. No. 23 UW-Stout (21-7)
Berea (24-3) at DePauw (21-7); No. 12 Hope (24-3) vs. Ripon (19-8)
Minnesota-Morris (17-10) at No. 9 UW-Whitewater (22-4); No. 20 Millikin (22-5) vs. Willamette (17-9)

Best first round matchup: Whenever we produce our next All-Decade team, Millkin guard Elyce Knudsen will be on it. She’s already a two-time first-team All-American, a Josten’s Trophy Winner, and the three-time CCIW Player of the Year. She’s the second leading scorer in the country this season (25.8 points per game) and the top scorer in the Tournament. And she’ll have her hands full in the first round when Millikin faces Willamette. Don’t let Willamette's 17-9 record fool you – a bunch of those losses are out of Division. The Bearcats have good size, and they shoot well from outside the arc (32.8 percent) and inside it (43.6 percent).

Most likely to surprise: Hope could certainly win two games as a road team, but that wouldn’t be a surprise since the Flying Dutch are the only ranked team in that pod. Instead, I’ll take UW-Stout since the Blue Devils won the WIAC tournament by beating No. 9 UW-Whitewater and No. 18 UW-Oshkosh on the road. The Blue Devils are led by crafty scorer Raegan Sorenson, who averages close to 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Sorenson leads her team in scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage, steals and blocks, and the Blue Devils are especially dangerous when Lexi Wagner heats up from three.

Most likely to disappoint: Carroll has already set a new program record for wins, and the Pioneers are making their first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since moving from the MWC to the CCIW. Olivia Rangel is an outstanding player who shoots a high percentage (48.6 percent FG%, 39.5 percent 3-point %) and distributes the ball well (131 assists). Sophomore forward Natalie Gricius is a first team all-conference selection and just scored 31 in Saturday’s CCIW title game. So, Carroll absolutely could win two games this weekend and, whenever the season ends, it won’t be a disappointment. But the Pioneers have two really tough games, starting with the opener against NWC champion Puget Sound.

And the winner is: Transylvania has had one of the quietest, undefeated runs to the NCAA Tournament that any defending national champion could have. The Pioneers have been utterly dominant and seemed destined for 27-0 since the season started. Transylvania has also won 60 straight games, which is the fifth longest winning streak in NCAA Division III women’s basketball history. With two wins this weekend, Transy can pass Capital (60 games), Hope (61 games) and Thomas More (61 games). The Pioneers will do that, and then add two more wins on their way back to the national semifinals.

Bowdoin quadrant (Upper right)

NEWMAC Player of the Year Jessie Ruffner and Smith are ready for another deep Tournament run. Photo by Smith College athletics

Western New England (22-5) at No. 8 Bowdoin (25-2); Mass-Dartmouth (23-4) vs. New Jersey City (19-8)
Penn State-Harrisburg (17-11) at No. 23 SUNY New Paltz (24-3); Trinity (Conn.) (19-7) vs. Baldwin Wallace (20-6)
No. 25 Webster (27-0) at No. 18 UW-Oshkosh (22-5); No. 5 Gustavus Adolphus (25-2) vs. Trine (21-7)
Maine Maritime (22-4) at No. 14 Smith (25-3); Shenandoah (21-7) vs. Messiah (22-5)

Best first round matchup: Two seasons ago, Webster was undefeated and got sent on the road to play Mary Hardin-Baylor in the first round because the Gorloks had a very low strength-of-schedule. The Gorloks narrowly missed beating the Crusaders, despite 22 points from Julie Baudendistel and 21 from Bethany Lancaster. This Friday, when Webster plays at No. 18 UW-Oshkosh, the Gorloks will once again be undefeated underdogs. Baudendistel and Lancaster are still there, and this is their best chance to put the Gorloks on the Division III map with a Tournament win over a perennially ranked opponent.

Most likely to surprise: I see at least four road teams that could win two games this weekend – Mass-Dartmouth, Trinity and Baldwin Wallace all have a chance – but the most likely is No. 5 Gustavus Adophus. Other than a 10-point loss to undefeated Rhode Island College and a road loss at Concordia-Moorhead, the Gusties have obliterated most opponents. The Gusties shoot almost 50 percent from the field (48.5 percent), they rebound well, and they take care of the ball. I like Gustavus to win both games this weekend.

Most likely to disappoint: I like Bowdoin and Smith to win their pods and UW-Oshkosh is arguably the underdog against higher ranked Gustavus Adolphus. So I guess this is SUNY New Paltz by default? The Hawks should handle Penn State-Harrisburg on Friday, but they could lose to either Trinity or Baldwin Wallace, both of which advanced to the sectional round of the 2023 Tournament. A showdown between New Paltz All-American guard Brianna Fitzgerald and Trinity All-American post Reilly Campbell would be fun, but not guaranteed since Trinity/Baldwin Wallace is a toss-up.

And the winner is…: Initially I picked Gustavus Adolphus to win the quadrant but, assuming Bowdoin advances this weekend and then hosts the sectional round in Brunswick, Maine, it’s asking a lot for a team to fly from Minnesota to New England and win two games on the road. Instead, I’ll take Smith which seems to be hitting its stride just in time to make another deep Tournament run. Just look at what the Pioneers did to MIT and Babson in the NEWMAC semifinals and finals. If the Pioneers shoot like that, they’ll advance to a second consecutive national semifinal.

Rhode Island College Quadrant (Lower right)

Izabelle Booth is one of three players averaging double-digit points per game for unbeaten Rhode Island College. Photo by RIC athletics

St. Joseph (Maine) (21-7) at No. 3 Rhode Island College (27-0); Gettysburg (24-3) vs. St. John Fisher (23-4)
No. 11 Catholic (25-2) vs. Penn State-Behrend (19-7); Vassar (25-2) at No. 19 Washington and Lee (26-2)
Brooklyn (18-8) at Bates (22-5); Springfield (22-5) vs. Widener (23-4)
Wisconsin Lutheran (23-4) at No. 7 Wartburg (25-2); No. 16 Illinois Wesleyan (22-5) vs. Concordia-Moorhead (20-5)

Best first round matchup: The neutral court matchup between No. 18 Illinois Wesleyan and Concordia-Moorhead is a contrast in styles. The Titans thrive on their press, forcing 23 turnovers per game, while the Cobbers commit just 12.2 turnovers per game, fifth fewest in Division III. For Illinois Wesleyan, the player to watch is Preseason All-American Lauren Huber who leads the Titans in scoring and shoots 52 percent from the field. For Concordia-Moorhead, keep an eye on fifth-year guard Emily Beseman whose assist-to-turnover ratio has improved every season she’s played.

Most likely to surprise: Springfield has had mixed results in its toughest road games this season. The Pride lost by 27 to Bowdoin back in November and by a more respectable 13 to Rhode Island College December. But Springfield also beat Smith by two in Scott Gymnasium and picked up road wins at Middlebury and MIT, which just missed the NCAA Tournament. The Pride’s first round matchup with Widener is no easy task, but it’s a much shorter drive to Maine from Massachusetts than suburban Philadelphia, and that’s a meaningful advantage for the first game of the Tournament. Springfield played its last two games without its second leading scorer Rachel Vinton, and I don’t know her status for this weekend. But Angela Czeremcha is averaging a double-double and the Pride could still win two this weekend.

Most likely to disappoint: I feel bad picking Catholic here because the Cardinals are only on the road because the Catholic men have hosting priority in the first round of the Tournament. But I’m taking Washington and Lee at home over Catholic in the second round. The Generals have a potent one-two punch with Hanna Malik and super sophomore Mary Schleusner, though the Cardinals have an excellent sophomore of their own in Landmark Conference Player of the Year Anna Scoblick. This is just a rough spot for Catholic, which should’ve had a better draw at 25-2.

And the winner is…: After New York University, Rhode Island College is the most impressive team I’ve watched this season. With 2021 All-American Sophia Guerrier joining a roster that returned a lot from last year’s national semifinal team, this year’s RIC team is even better than the one that came within a couple defensive stops of playing for the 2023 national championship. They’ve beaten a lot of very good teams by double-digits, so I like the Anchorwomen to win this quadrant.

National semifinals

Assuming my picks are right (and that’s unlikely), it would be Rhode Island College against Smith in one semifinal and New York University against Transylvania in the other

I’m very high on Rhode Island College. The Anchorwomen have size, depth, skill, and the ability to put games away from behind the three-point line. I like RIC to beat Smith in a tense battle between two Tournament-tested teams.

The other semifinal would match undefeated and top-ranked New York University against undefeated national champs Transylvania. If we do get that rematch of last year’s NCAA Tournament game, we’ll have plenty to say about it before it’s played. For now, I’ll just say that I’d take the NYU this time around.

That would give us another national title game with two undefeated teams – NYU and RIC -- just like last year when Transy beat Christopher Newport. Rhode Island College is one of very few teams in the country that has given me pause when trying to answer the question, “Can anyone beat NYU this year?”

And, inevitably, I come back to the conclusion that no one will beat the 2024 Ultra Violets. NYU will be the 2024 NCAA Division III national champions.