By Pat Coleman
Publisher, D3hoops.com

Thirty-six teams tip off Wednesday night as the 2003 women’s tournament gets underway. Although you’ve seen the bracket and watched us rehash the selection process (and complained about it yourself, no doubt), it’s time to get down to business.

There are a lot of interesting stories in this bracket — which unbeaten team gets less respect, No. 2 Hope or No. 4 Hardin-Simmons? Can Marymount repeat last year’s improbable run to the Final Four? Can anyone upset one of the three teams in the top six that dominate the second bracket? Does familiarity breed contempt in the Northeast? And which team will be more motivated in the Hope/Washington & Jefferson matchup?

We try to answer these questions and more in our 2003 NCAA Tournament preview.

East Regional

Rutgers-Camden (21-6) at Gwynedd-Mercy (19-8), winner plays at Marymount (22-6)
Hunter (19-9) at Johns Hopkins (21-5), winner plays winner of Hood (15-11) at Messiah (25-2)
St. Lawrence (25-2) at Scranton (22-4), winner plays at Rochester (21-4)
Brockport State (21-7) at Ithaca (20-5), winner at St. John Fisher (23-2)

This bracket features two of last year’s Final Four, but it also has one of the more interesting teams, as Rutgers-Camden lost first-team All-Region center Joy Silver in midseason while she appealed a first-semester grade. But she’s returned, and the Scarlet Raptors have a seven-game winning streak to show for it.

Marymount reached the tournament by routing conference rival Salisbury in the CAC title game, and the 24-point home loss knocked Salisbury clear off the bubble. Rochester has already faced elimination once, needing to upset then-unbeaten Washington U. to stay in the playoff race.

Cinderella story: There are a couple teams who open on the road, yet could make noise in this bracket. Rutgers-Camden is not the same team that picked up four of its six losses in a nine-game stretch. If they win at Gwynedd-Mercy, they get Marymount on Saturday, and both have wins against Salisbury.

Most likely to disappoint: Messiah didn’t fare well against the top teams from the MAC Freedom and unless they’ve gotten a lot better, they’ll have a hard time in the second round and a harder time against the Gwynedd-Mercy/Rutgers-Camden/Marymount winner.

Who will win? Rochester has had some puzzling games this year, barely beating Emory (10-15) at home, and losing to them on the road. They lost at NYU and Brandeis. They are unbeaten at home, however, and they have at least one game there after the bye. If they host the sectional, they’re in the driver’s seat.

South Regional

Meredith (18-6) at Randolph-Macon (19-9), winner plays at Hardin-Simmons (26-0)
Methodist (19-9) at Maryville (Tenn.) (22-5), winner plays at Trinity (Texas) (23-5)
Illinois Wesleyan (19-8) at Fontbonne (21-4), winner plays at Washington U. (24-1)
Rockford (17-11) at St. Norbert (21-4), winner plays at Carleton (25-2)

There aren’t too many scenarios usually under which the NCAA would play a sectional at a geographically isolated location, but if both Hardin-Simmons and Trinity reach the Sweet 16, it’s a natural. All three top seeds would have to fly to Washington U. or to Carleton, so Hardin-Simmons has to be rooting for Trinity to advance past the Maryville/Methodist winner.

Note how this bracket deftly separates the two powers in the Central Region — Washington U. and UW-Eau Claire. They are bracketed to meet in the title game.

Cinderella story: I don’t think any of the teams playing on the road in the first round has a reasonable shot at beating one of the bye teams in the second round. Illinois Wesleyan has the best chance at winning its first round game, and St. Norbert, if it beats Rockford, probably has the best chance of winning in the second round. But it’s a long shot.

Most likely to disappoint: There’s a lot at stake here for Hardin-Simmons. At some point, in order to keep getting Top Five regular-season rankings, they must prove they can beat a non-South Region team. Usually they manage to be the last South team standing, but last year they didn’t even get that far. Here’s their shot, and it will likely even come at home.

Who will win? It’s hard to go against Washington U.

Northeast Regional

Salve Regina (25-3) at Emmanuel (25-3), winner plays at Bowdoin (24-2)
Springfield (20-8) at Salem State (22-5), winner plays at Southern Maine (25-3)
Pitt-Greensburg (22-6) at Mt. St. Mary (25-2), winner plays at King’s (23-3)
SUNY-Farmingdale (18-6) at Eastern Connecticut (23-4), winner plays at DeSales (24-3)

Many of these teams have already played each other. King’s and DeSales have met three times. Emmanuel has played Eastern Connecticut. Bowdoin has played Southern Maine and Salem State, who has also played Eastern Connecticut and Salve Regina. Well, and then there are Farmingdale and Pitt-Greensburg, who haven’t played anyone. This should quickly turn into Maine Vs. The MAC.

Cinderella story: Springfield has the best chance among the teams opening on the road to reach the Sweet 16. Righting the ship after a four-game losing streak and winning the topsy-turvy NEWMAC is a start, and Salem State ran the table in the MASCAC but didn’t look as impressive out of conference as they have in the past. But Pitt-Greensburg is a wild card that could surprise as well.

Most likely to disappoint: This is a hard choice. Salem State shouldn’t be considered a disappointment if they lose to Springfield — those teams are too close together. It seems unlikely Emmanuel will lose to Salve Regina, and similarly unlikely they will beat Bowdoin. We’re going to go with Southern Maine.

Who will win? There are two obvious choices. We’re going with neither of them and casting our lot with DeSales. Just a hunch.

Central Regional

Wisconsin Lutheran (18-8) at UW-Eau Claire (27-1), winner plays winner of La Verne (17-8) at Chapman (16-9)
Loras (22-6) at Gustavus Adolphus (22-3), winner plays at Pacific Lutheran (20-7)
Wittenberg (24-4) at Baldwin-Wallace (24-4), winner plays at Wilmington (24-2)
Mt. St. Joseph (19-9) at Hope (28-0), winner plays at Washington & Jefferson (23-1)

It’s not always odd when the No. 1 team in the country doesn’t get a bye. But it is odd in this case because the NCAA actually agreed with our poll, at least in having UW-Eau Claire as the top team in its region. And in this case they are really the top seed in the bracket, but for geography’s sake, Eau Claire has a first-round game. This is one of those infamous 1/13 games you hear about every March, right? Not quite the same ring as an 8/9 game or a 5/12 game.

It’s hard to tell what’s more odd, really, Eau Claire not getting a bye or Hope, which ran the table, not getting one either.

Cinderella story: Sorry, I don’t think a team with a first-round bye and a second-round home game can be the Cinderella story. If they were placed elsewhere in the bracket they’d qualify, because they could upset someone in this tournament. Except it wouldn’t be an upset in the NCAA’s eyes. So that leaves us with Wittenberg, which lost to Baldwin-Wallace by 26, although that was 12 weeks ago. Since then, Wittenberg has won 19 games in a row. Yikes.

Most likely to disappoint: I just don’t think Washington & Jefferson is ready for this level of competition yet. But they’re young. They can learn from it this year and come back in 2004.

Who will win? Eau Claire. Too good for anyone in this bracket, and has to be sensing destiny awaiting in Terre Haute.

Final Four

Washington U. and Rochester played two thrilling games this year, each winning on its home floor. Here in Terre Haute, a neutral floor, expect a tie — after regulation, that is. But Washington U. wins in overtime. Otherwise Laura Crowley and her classmates would be in danger of graduating with just two rings. Can that happen?

On the other side, it’s DeSales vs. UW-Eau Claire. DeSales will bring the pressure. But Eau Claire will handle it, and we’ll get the marquee matchup we’re hoping for in Washington U. vs. UW-Eau Claire.

Who will win? Well, I’ve been voting Eau Claire No. 1 on my Top 25 ballot since the second week of January. I wouldn’t be any good at all if I didn’t put my prediction where my vote is.