By Mark Simon
D3hoops.com

Somewhere, sometime, somehow it will happen.

There are 49 teams who right now have to believe in the unbelievable -- that they can defeat Washington University of St. Louis, the team with the longest win streak in women’s basketball history at 63 games.

Never mind that the Bears haven’t come close to losing this season. Forget the fact that they have trailed for only 22 minutes and 51 seconds this season. Disregard that the latest point that Washington University trailed was with 6:50 remaining in the first half on Jan. 21 against Brandeis -- and the team responded with a 30-4 run. Ignore that the closest a team has gotten in the second half was when Emory closed to within four points 28 seconds into the second half of an 84-58 loss. Scoff at the knowledge that in Washington’s closest game, a 13-point win against Pacific Lutheran, the Lutes scored the final nine points to make the final score close.

Since Emory was the last to do it (65-50 on Feb. 15, 1998) we thought some advice from them would be worthwhile.

"The reason we were so successful," said Emory coach Myra Sims, who could claim victory the year the the Bears copped their first national crown, "is that we were able to play a 2-3 zone and their perimeter players didn’t shoot the ball well. When we tried it this year, their perimeter shooters made it difficult to stay in a zone. If you follow them at all, you know the reason that they are so successful is that they are so balanced and so deep. The team this year is the most balanced I’ve ever seen."

It’s going to take a little more then skill to beat the Bears. Almost isn’t good enough either. Just ask the NYU team that led by 11 at halftime, the Capital team that took them to overtime, or the UW-Oshkosh squad that was up 18-3 at one point last season. So we went bracket by bracket, looking for theories and looking for believers. Here’s what we found.

Theory: The team that beats Washington will be one who is both familiar and fearless
The team: Scranton

After last season’s national semifinal loss to Washington University, Scranton guard Kelly Halpin walked into the postgame press conference in tears. "We didn’t feel," she said, "that we belonged on the same court with them."

Intimidation is a key element of Washington’s game. Just stepping on the court makes others nervous. Not only that -- nothing seems to scare the Bears -- not even the several hundred Scranton fans who stood and screamed while Washington picked Scranton apart in the first half.

"I think that Washington is so experienced in winning on the road," said Scranton coach Mike Strong, "that it probably fed them for us to have that fan support."

The Theory: The team that has the best shot against Washington is the one that can limit Washington’s best shot.
The Team: St. Thomas

St. Thomas might not have led the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Association in opposing field goal percentage, but the Tommies allowed 200 fewer shots then any other team in the league. If team defense wins championships, this may be the way to go.

"We predicate everything off our defense," said first-year coach Tricia Dornisch. "Our defense had to stay at the top level (for us to win)."

Last year, it was the clutch play St. Benedict guard Molly Mark that gave her team a chance against the Bears in the title game. If St. Thomas, gets to that point, they’ll need a Molly -- senior center Molly Hayden (17.9 ppg) to make her mark

Hayden, a transfer from North Dakota State, was one of the dominant players nationally this season. Not only can she shoot from as far as 17 feet, she is one of the best post defenders in the league. That will be critical to the Tommies success if she should have to defend either of Washington’s inside threats -- Alia Fischer or Tasha Rodgers.

Other important players in the mix include starters Anne Newell (6.6 ppg. 5.3 rpg.), Missy Pederson (11.9 ppg.) and Mary Thomas (10.5 ppg., 26 blocked shots) and subs Molly O’Connell and Kate Burabe, who make up what Dornisch feels is one of the deepest teams in the country.

"From one to five, a lot of teams may be even with us," said Dornisch, "but from one to twelve, not many teams can keep up."

The Theory: Imitation is better than innovation
The Team: Baldwin-Wallace

Considering Baldwin-Wallace only returned two starters from last year’s team, head coach Cheri Harrer had to be thrilled with her team’s 26-1 mark.

"It surprised our coaching staff how well the kids responded," said Harrer.

This was a case where the system clearly played a big role in the success. This team wins with its size. Top scorers Anjee Beard and Jen Nance represent the size up front. Both shot better than 60% from the field. Point guard Emily Clark played an important role, breaking the team record for assists in a season.

Take a quick glance and you might think you were watching Washington University.

"We’re not quite as tall as them," said Harrer. "but we play the same kind of style. They have very good size, they are very athletic and they are very disciplined. They don’t make many mistakes. That’s what other coaches tell me about our team. We’re not going to beat ourselves. We play the same brand of basketball as them. It would come down to who plays it best. We hope every kid on our team is ready to step it up.’

Theory: Cinderella teams don’t tend to leave the dance quickly
The team: Salisbury State

Not only did sixth-seeded Salisbury State win all three of its Capital Athletic Conference playoff games on the road -- it beat the three best teams in the conference by a combined 55 points. The Sea Gulls (16-11) have the most losses of any team in the tournament but also have the most momentum

"We are very fortunate to be in," said head coach Bridget Benshetler. "We earned the right to be here. We did the toughest thing you could do."

The one thing that could carry Salisbury a long way is dominant center Lisa Neylan (25 ppg, 12.3 rpg. in last three games), who carried the Sea Gulls during their stretch drive. She went up against who many feel is the best center in the nation, Gallaudet’s Ronda Jo Miller, and outplayed her at both ends of the floor. Salisbury’s outside scoring threat -- Elizabeth Barfuss (16.6 ppg.), is dangerous as well. There is even size in the backcourt, with 6-foot freshman Amy Campion to go along with defensive stalwart Michelle Deschu.

"I think our program has respect," said Benshetler, who is in her 10th season in charge. "Are we in the upper echelon? No. Are we approaching it? Yes. Can we compete with the upper-level teams? I don’t know. That’s why they play the game."