2005 Tournament Preview

By Pat Coleman
Publisher, D3hoops.com

This year's tournament gets underway Wednesday night, with 36 of the 50 teams in action. The women get 50 teams and the men 48 because there are more women's basketball programs in Division III. Those extra two teams are dispersed throughout the bracket on an annual basis, meaning two teams do not get first-round byes. Next year the bracket expansion should get us a 62-team tournament (and 58 for the men), one spot for every 6.5 teams in Division III.

This bracket features a team that was so sure it was out of the playoffs that it stopped practicing and didn't even check the brackets on Selection Sunday. They're in on a Pool C bid instead of, say, Whitworth.

But that's about the only quibble. In fact, the committee even balanced the brackets somewhat by moving Bowdoin out of the stacked Northeast. And speaking of which, let's get started. It should be noted that these brackets were seeded by D3hoops.com using the selection and ranking criteria to enhance your understanding of the relative strength of teams and enjoyment of the tournament. The NCAA does not release its seedings of these brackets. On occasion, geography and other factors such as ability to host juggle the pairings from the traditional seeding matchups.

Northeast Regional

No. 9 Salem State at No. 8 Emmanuel, winner plays at No. 1 Bates
No. 12 Colby-Sawyer at No. 5 Ithaca, winner advances to play winner of No. 11 Maine Maritime at No. 4 Southern Maine
No. 10 Richard Stockton at No. 7 Springfield, winner to No. 2 Mount St. Mary
No. 13 Chestnut Hill at No. 6 Wesleyan, winner to No. 3 Staten Island

This is the main wing of the Maine bracket — thankfully not all of the Maine teams are in this grouping, but it's a pretty strong set with the No. 3 and No. 4 teams in the nation on the same side of the bracket.

Cinderella story: We usually define this as a team that starts with a first round road game and advances to the Sweet 16. That's a tall order in this bracket, where Bates sits waiting to smack down Salem State's chances. So we go a different direction and talk about Wesleyan, which was sure its season was over after a fourth-place finish in the NESCAC and a loss in the conference quarterfinals. They have an incredibly favorable draw — and shoot, they even have fresh legs now!

Most likely to disappoint: Mount St. Mary. I'm not sure they would be favored against either possible second-round opponent.

Who will win? Southern Maine dismissed Tiffany Jones from the team this week, and that puts a serious crimp in their chances of winning the tournament. Now the door is left open for Bates or Springfield, and although Bates might not have the home-court advantage in the sectionals because of the size of their gym, they should be able to handle all comers in this bracket.

Central Regional

No. 11 Webster at No. 6 Washington U., winner plays at No. 1 Millikin
No. 10 Rockford at No. 8 Ripon, winner plays
winner of No. 13 Edgewood at No. 4 UW-Stout
No. 9 Franklin at No. 7 Calvin, winner plays at No. 2 DePauw
No. 12 Denison at No. 5 Baldwin-Wallace, winner plays at No. 3 Albion

Other regions have risen to challenge the Central as the strongest region in Division III women's basketball over the past few years, but what's here is certainly very strong. Just having Wash U and the WIAC in the same bracket has made for a great imbalance in previous years, but Wash U is more mortal these days.

Cinderella story: None of the first-round road teams has a good shot at making the Sweet 16, in our estimation. You'd have to hope Franklin plays as well as it did against Wilmington in last year's postseason to find a Cinderella candidate here, and even that game wasn't all that close.

Most likely to disappoint: I've got a bad feeling about Millikin for some reason, but it's just a hunch. It's more that I feel good about Washington U. and UW-Stout, who Millikin would have to open with.

Who will win? I like UW-Stout, actually. The 22-6 record is deceiving with losses to Division I North Dakota State and at Division II St. Cloud State. Plus they have a win against DePauw on a neutral floor. However, they might not be lucky enough to get a neutral floor this time around.

Mid-Atlantic Regional

No. 11 Frostburg State at No. 6 McDaniel, winner to No. 1 Scranton
No. 12 Westminster (Pa.) at No. 5 Dickinson, winner to No. 4 Messiah
No. 10 Washington and Jefferson at No. 7 William Smith, winner to No. 3 Oswego State
No. 9 Alvernia at No. 8 Brockport State, winner to No. 2 Bowdoin

We struggled hard to figure out why McDaniel appears to be seeded behind Dickinson. McDaniel won the conference and has the better strength of schedule. And they are set up to play Scranton if they advance? Yikes!

Cinderella story: Washington and Jefferson is in the best position to win two games as a bottom-four seed in this bracket. But it all hinges on the health of leading scorer Leigh Sulkowski, who has missed time with an ankle injury and still wasn't 100% as of the conference tournament.

Most likely to disappoint: Oswego State, if Sulkowski is healthy. Messiah, if she's not..

Who will win? Bowdoin. Even if the sectional is at Scranton, I think, though that would make it more difficult.

South Regional

No. 10 Simpson at No. 6 St. Benedict, winner to No. 2 Buena Vista
No. 11 Cal Lutheran at No. 9 Chapman, winner to No. 3 George Fox
No. 7 Mary Washington at No. 12 Maryville (Tenn.), winner to No. 1 Randolph-Macon
No. 5 Trinity (Texas) at No. 4 Howard Payne, winner hosts No. 8 Greensboro

Geography is all over this regional, with the three west coast teams in one pod and the two Texas teams forced to face each other in the first round. Greensboro flies in to face the winner, getting a bye as a No. 8 seed. Go figure.

Cinderella story: Winning two road games? No such thing. Trinity (Texas) could win one road game but of course will not play a second.

Most likely to disappoint: Buena Vista.

Who will win? Even though I'll likely be covering the men's tournament for the site that day, I'd sure like to see the Randolph-Macon/George Fox game. The Texas winner could knock Randolph-Macon out of the picture as well. I'd love to take George Fox but only if it's on the west coast. Randolph-Macon if it's at home.

Final Four

I take Bates over UW-Stout, and Bowdoin over the South/West representative. So that gives us another classic Bates/Bowdoin matchup, on a floor that's about as neutral as you can get. Bowdoin lost at Bates and barely won the NESCAC title game on its home floor, so I would favor Bates in Virginia Beach.