As is traditional, we have attempted to project the field of 48 based on the same criteria the NCAA national committee will be using on Sunday. They give us 38 gimmes in the automatic bids and we have to figure out the 3 Pool B and 7 Pool C bids.
After the frustration of last season, where we had to project mediocre teams in in Pool B and leave great teams out of Pool C (oh wait, we put them in, it was the committee that left them out) this year was a relief. And perhaps a portent of things to come next year, when there are closer to 17 Pool C bids, the final C teams were very similar and we could have gone almost anywhere with them.
This past summer, when New Jersey City University left the New Jersey Athletic Conference, it was a consensus among those who follow such things that they would be a Pool B lock this season. But the decision on Selection Sunday morning was not anywhere near as easy as that.
Maryville (Tenn.) was a lock, however, and passed through our ad hoc committee without a second thought. From there, there were really three teams for the remaining two slots (a fourth, Chapman, was discussed, but summarily dismissed when it was noted their SOS index was 8.583, more than .6 lower than any other candidate). We discussed Bethany, Lincoln and New Jersey City at length. And then we talked about them some more. And then... well, you get the picture.
| Primary criteria The following primary criteria (not in priority order) will be reviewed: • Win-loss percentage against regional opponents • Strength-of-schedule index – only contests versus regional competition • In-region head-to-head competition. • In-region results versus common regional opponents. • In-region results versus regionally ranked teams. |
Here's the problem. Lincoln has an edge on New Jersey City in three of the five primary criteria, and a push on a fourth (a nearly identical SOS index). The problem is, that fifth primary criteria is two head-to-head wins for New Jersey City over Lincoln.
We had to put NJCU in next.
That left Lincoln, the Strength of Schedule candidate, against Bethany, the regional win-loss percentage candidate, for the third and final Pool B slot. Lincoln has a 9.765 SOS compared to 9.19 for Bethany, while Bethany has a .905 regional winning percentage, compared to .706 for Lincoln. Both gaps are relatively wide. There's no head-to-head game or common regional opponents. (Both played Hood, but gosh darnit, it's 204 miles from Hood to Bethany and that's just the way it is in Division III. A perfectly valid data point ignored because of the map. Then again, Lincoln was 2-0 against Hood and Bethany was 1-0.)
The first four categories are a wash, leaving results versus regionally ranked teams. That's where Lincoln lucks out, having a win at Lehman, which was ranked in the Atlantic region all season. Bethany has none.
Lincoln is in. Bethany gets moved to Pool C consideration as per the guidelines. Note, this is the first time we've had a Pool B leftover that has been even close to Pool C quality. More to come.
| Secondary criteria We did not use any of these this year. They are too logical, after all. • Out-of region head-to-head competition. • Overall Division III won-loss percentage • Results versus common non-Division III opponents • Results versus Division III teams ranked in other regions • Overall win-loss percentage • Results versus common out-of-region opponents • Overall Division III Strength of Schedule |
We had seven Pool C spots to assign and we initially identified 14 teams to consider for those spots. The way we understand the committee makes this decision is it takes the best candidate in each region and compares them all against each other. Now, in some regions (Atlantic, hello) this is not feasible, since the region didn't have a candidate. But we put Springfield on our board from the Northeast, Wooster from the Great Lakes, Wartburg from the West, Lebanon Valley from the Mid-Atlantic, Wheaton (Ill.) from the Midwest, Hardin-Simmons from the South and Oswego State from the East.
Wooster (.917 regional win percentage, 9.958) was put in first by general acclamation. Albion replaced them on the board. Springfield (.808, 10.731) was next. We would have replaced them with Bates, but Bates has eight regional losses if they become a Pool C candidate tomorrow with a loss to Amherst. Albion (.824, 10.118) goes into the field next and is replaced on the board by John Carroll. John Carroll, somewhat surprisingly to us, has the best credentials of the group (.792, 9.833), giving us three Pool C teams from the region. They are replaced on the board by Bethany.
That's four Pool C teams in so far. These are the teams that are relatively safe from upsets on Sunday. If Amherst, St. John Fisher, Mississippi College or York (Pa.) loses on Sunday, they would be Pool C candidates as well and would fit into the top four, but it would take all four of those teams losing to knock out any of the four we've already selected.
Lebanon Valley is next (.783, 10.13, 3-3 against regionally ranked teams) into the field, and Wartburg (.833, 9.333, 1-2 v. regionally ranked) and even that is already sketchy. Wheaton (Ill.) has the worst combination of regional winning percentage and SOSI (.789, 9.947) of any team we put in. They were the last team we put in last year, and we all know how that ended up.
So we've got our 48 — here's how they shake down. This is in order of seedings.
| NORTHEAST Amherst Worcester Polytech Salem State Springfield Endicott Elms |
EAST St. John Fisher Potsdam State Rochester Western Connecticut Norwich Union |
| ATLANTIC Ramapo New Jersey City Gwynedd-Mercy NYC Tech Lincoln Mount St. Mary |
MIDDLE ATLANTIC York (Pa.) Wooster King's Albright Lebanon Valley Centennial champ |
| SOUTH Mississippi College Maryville (Tenn.) Trinity (Texas) Virginia Wesleyan Methodist Pomona-Pitzer |
GREAT LAKES Wittenberg Albion John Carroll Calvin Baldwin-Wallace Penn State-Behrend |
| MIDWEST Illinois Wesleyan Aurora Hanover Wheaton Edgewood Blackburn |
WEST Puget Sound UW-Stevens Point Buena Vista Gustavus Adolphus Wartburg Lawrence |
You like that Middle Atlantic No. 2 seed? We do, too. That bracket needs a little balancing and Wooster fits in just fine geographically. In that bracket, too, No. 4 Albright and No. 5 Lebanon Valley would not meet in the first round, as they are both from the same conference. Leb Val would play King's and F&M (or Ursinus, if they win the Centennial on Sunday) would play Albright.
In the South, yes, we believe Virginia Wesleyan can drive to Maryville (Tenn.) in under 500 miles as required to avoid a flight by the NCAA. Pomona-Pitzer is on an island (nobody else in the field within 500 miles) and Trinity (Texas) is on an island. We take that winner and fly it to Mississippi College, which is not quite on an island but would only be able to drive to or from Maryville.
Puget Sound is on an island in the West and there's no real way to avoid a second flight, not with the three South Region islands, so we have the Wartburg/Gustavus Adolphus winner going to Puget Sound. Yes, Lawrence can drive to Buena Vista in less than 500 miles.
We had enough Great Lakes teams that we could export Wooster to the Middle Atlantic without cascading effects all over the place.
And our last little nugget in the Midwest has to go out to Wheaton fans snubbed by the committee last year. Look who's coming to your place in our first round...